The cash market wavered on either side of flat Tuesday, seemingly torn between forecasts of colder temperatures in such key market areas as the Midwest and South versus the previous day’s prompt-month futures break below $5 for the first time since December combined with ample storage inventories remaining as the final month of the traditional withdrawal season nears.

Flat numbers were common amid changes ranging to about a dime higher and a little more than a dime lower. Small gains tended to slightly outnumber the small losses.

Prompt-month futures recorded another down session only a day before Wednesday’s expiration, falling 11.7 cents to complete a four-day drop of 66.8 cents (see related story).

North Texas was poised to establish yet another snowfall record as a winter storm approached from the west Tuesday. But although lows in the teens and 20s were predicted for the rest of the South and the Midwest, the heating load impact on gas prices was negligible. The Northeast in general was not expected to get below freezing in most sections Wednesday, and forecasts in the West remained cold to moderate overall.

A Midcontinent producer said local weather was “still pretty gloomy,” with another one to two inches of snow due in the Oklahoma City area due around Friday.

He said the March futures collapse to $4.855 Monday had him hearing Midcontinent baseload for March trading around $4.72 on Panhandle Eastern and OGT a bit higher at $4.77, “so basis is staying very tight but not positive (for now!).” Weather forecasts continued to be supportive for gas prices through early March as far as what he could see.

A western trader said bidweek price offers were going down Tuesday from those on the previous day, noting that the PG&E citygate was trading mostly in the mid $5.10s Tuesday.

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said he is expecting a storage pull of 170 Bcf for the week ending Feb. 19, up from a previous estimate of 160 Bcf. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Cameron Horwitz submitted a nearly identical estimate of 169 Bcf, which he said was largely attributable to a 5% sequential weekly decline in gas-weighted heating degree days that resulted in lower space heating demand. Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research had a slightly higher projection of a 172 Bcf withdrawal.

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