Breaking a five-session series of lower-lows and lower-highs, the natural gas futures market turned tentatively higher Wednesday as continued and steady end-user buying was enough to meet fund and commercial selling. Modest gains were seen throughout the six-year strip at Nymex and the September contract eked out a 0.9-cent advance to close Wednesday at $5.382.

Traders polled by NGI said they were “playing it safe” Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s release of fresh storage data. Injection estimates range from 72 to 90 Bcf, which is in line with the year-ago build of 77 Bcf but above the five-year average injection of 59 Bcf. ICAP’s EIA storage derivatives auction from 3-4 p.m. EDT on Wednesday yielded an 82 Bcf injection, a number some market watchers consider high following the nearly 5 Bcf of shut-ins associated with storms Bonnie and Charley last week.

Sources agreed that it would have taken another hurricane threat to budge prices very far from center Wednesday. A quick check of the National Hurricane Center Wednesday revealed that it is all quiet on the storm front, except for downgraded Hurricane Danielle, which is located in the central Atlantic Ocean and curving away from North America.

“Sure there were buyers out there,” said Tom Saal of Commercial Brokerage Corp. “There just weren’t enough of them to boost prices.” That being said, Saal was moderately impressed with the market’s ability to follow Tuesday’s neutral session with an up-day Wednesday. “With the funds net short, the locals have to be looking for buy stops above the market,” he said.

That potential buying push combined with the existence of support near the $5.25 level could prove a powerful force for bulls over the next several sessions.

Tim Evans of IFR Pegasus in New York looks to cover his $5.62 short with a $5.52 buy stop in September. Similarly, a daily close in October futures above the $5.62 level would prompt Craig Coberly of GSC Energy in Atlanta to consider whether the downtrend is complete. A close above $5.69, he added, would give more compelling evidence.

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