The limbo pole was moved one peg lower Tuesday as natural gas futures continued to fall, notching its fourth consecutive close lower in regular session trading. December natural gas settled down 12.9 cents at $7.471.

Tuesday’s close was the lowest the contract has been since Sept. 28, when the December contract settled at $7.021.

“There is some chart support in the $7.28 area,” said Tom Saal of Commercial Brokerage Corp. in Miami. “We are a little oversold on the short-term intraday charts. I think every day that we don’t get any serious weather, the market just wants to grind lower.

Looking at the charts, Saal said there is a big gap on the December contract between $7.03 and $7.30, a level which the market almost penetrated Tuesday. “If we get below $7.30, then that $7.03 number could become the next support target,” Saal said. Tuesday’s regular session trading saw a low of $7.31.

“Backing up a couple of weeks, most of the weather forecasts were calling for below normal temperatures in most gas consuming areas beginning the first part of November,” Saal said. “So far, that has not materialized. We are obviously knocking a lot of premium out of the market. However, natural gas is still pretty expensive by historical levels.”

Commenting on the fact that it finally appears natural gas futures prices are falling, Advest Inc.’s Jay Levine said, “Given the meteoric rise in the complex, even a tapering of prices is welcome.”

However, Levine warned that markets don’t often travel in straight lines. “These markets offer up plenty of contradictions, so the sooner you accept the fact — that 2 + 2 does not always = 4 around here, the better,” he said. “Nevertheless, there were pull-backs along the way; they were just fleeting and you had to be damn quick about buying (covering) them.”

The natural gas futures market now awaits the Energy Information Administration’s storage report, which was moved up a day to Wednesday due to the Veterans’ Day holiday on Thursday. The number will be compared against last year’s 32 Bcf injection and the five-year average build of 7 Bcf. Market watchers appear to be looking for a Bcf build anywhere from the low teens to 30.

Saal said he expected the injection to be in the 20-plus Bcf area. “I think most people are looking for a small injection, but any injection during the month of November obviously adds to the bearish sentiment,” he said.

Chipping in with his opinion on what the storage number will be, Levine said he is looking for a 28 Bcf injection. However, with storage as full as it is, he allowed that probably few people really care.

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