After dropping 47.8 cents last week, the May natural gas futures contract almost made it all back on Monday as traders — aided by strength in crude prices — pushed the prompt-month 46.9 cents higher to close at $9.791.

After trading between $9.530 and $9.805 on the day, the close near the top of the range could spell another run-up to the high of $10.294, which was recorded when the April contract was front month back on March 14. In lending support to the run-up in natural gas, May crude gained $2.86 Monday to close at $109.09/bbl.

Traders are also preparing themselves for the annual early April release of hurricane forecasts from the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, AccuWeather.com and the Colorado State University forecast team led by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray. Some forecasts are already popping up.

According to meteorologists at Houston-based Weather Research Center (WRC), the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will have at least 11 named storms, with six of these tropical storms intensifying into hurricanes. Also, the firm advised that it should be a long season this year since there is a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in May and a 10% chance in December.

WRC said the U.S. coast from Georgia to North Carolina has a 90% chance of experiencing a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane this year. “The news is not good for the Gulf of Mexico oil patch; the Gulf oil leases have a 90% chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane this summer,” according to Jill F. Hasling, president of WRC.

Going into Monday’s trade, some risk managers favored price protection for physical market longs. Mike DeVooght of DEVO Capital Management, a Colorado-based trading and risk management firm, advised producers to continue to hold short a summer strip at $7.900 to $8 for a “small position.” He also advised holding short an additional summer strip established between $8.250 and $8.350 for 50% of production. End-users are counseled to stand aside, and trading accounts should “hold short April at $8, and hold short October-long January at a spread of 70-75 cents,” he said in a morning note to clients.

As seasonal temperatures rise there is little likelihood of significant heating requirements, but storage supplies currently stand at 1,248 Bcf, well below last year’s 1,552 Bcf. If MDA EarthSat’s six- to 10-day forecast is correct, cooler temperatures may delay the beginning of the injection season, where approximately 2 Tcf needs to be added to bring stocks up to a comfortable 3.2 Tcf by the start of next winter’s heating season.

“While there are detail differences, the American, European and Canadian ensembles this morning are all very similar with cool weather in the eastern U.S. and warmth across the West,” said Matt Rogers of MDA EarthSat. The agreement among the models gives Rogers increased confidence in his forecast, and “few changes are noted here today with all three model ensembles keeping a similar theme over the weekend: a seasonable-to-cool East with warmth remaining out West.” On a scale of one to 10 Rogers ranks confidence in the forecast at seven.

Risk managers aside, others favored the long side of the market going into Monday’s session. “We’re long May natural gas from approximately $9.400-stop $9.330,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron in Chicago.

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