It was easy to be a natural gas futures bull Tuesday. In addition to another round of frigid forecasts and spiking prices in the cash market, natural gas futures traders had added buying incentive as crude oil prices spiked following a deadly explosion at an Algerian gas liquefaction plant Monday.

The February contract closed at $6.291, up 35.1 cents for the session and just a few pennies from its high for the session. At 42,214, estimated volume was extremely light, casting a ray of doubt on the advance.

Though Algeria is the third largest source of LNG for the U.S. behind Nigeria and Trinidad, the explosion Monday is not expected to have an impact on domestic supply of natural gas. However, the psychological effect was undeniable as natural gas futures followed the crude market higher. February crude advanced $1.13 /bbl to go off the board at $36.20.

Adding to the buying fervor Tuesday were revised forecasts out following the three-day holiday weekend. By calling for a large swath of below-normal temperatures in its six- to 10-day forecast Tuesday, the National Weather Service turned 180 degrees from its mild, eight- to 14-day outlooks last week covering virtually the same period. Add to that the corroboration from private forecasters calling for cold weather and the bulls were running Tuesday.

Stronger cash prices also played into the nearly 6% increase in gas futures prices. NGI’s Henry Hub numbers advanced 74 cents to $6.15 Tuesday as weather-focused buyers bid for the physical molecule.

On Wednesday, attention will be focused on estimates ahead of Thursday’s storage report. Following last week’s surprisingly small (given the record cold) 153 Bcf withdrawal, estimates this week run the gamut from a 160 Bcf to a 247 Bcf drawdown.

“While the cold in the Northeast was intense last week, the heating degree day accumulations overall were less than in the prior week, when only 153 Bcf was drawn from storage,” noted analyst Tim Evans of IFR Pegasus in New York. “We think Thursday’s report may show a more robust 160-180 Bcf withdrawal based on more extreme consumption in the Northeast, but we can’t be sure of a bullish price reaction if we’re right.” Last year the market witnessed a 219 Bcf draw and the five-year average for the week is calculated at 165 Bcf.

Analyst Stephen Smith is predicting the number announced Thursday will be 197 Bcf.

Apart from the storage situation, the technical outlook is turning up, insists Craig Coberly of GSC Energy in Atlanta. “[Friday’s] decline [completes] the ‘abc’ pattern that has unfolded since the December high. This puts gas in a technical position where a substantial rally is the next probable event,” he said, pointing to $8.66 or $10.39 as the two most probable objectives for this rally over the next several weeks.

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