After falling more than 22 cents over the last two regular sessions, the March natural gas futures contract and those that trade it appeared to take a rest on Wednesday despite the fact that a blizzard was battering much of the East with heavy snow totals and high winds.

The prompt-month contract traded between $5.240 and $5.380 on the day before closing out the day’s regular session at $5.292, up only two-tenths of a cent from Tuesday’s finish.

Despite the cold and blizzard-like conditions running from North Carolina to Connecticut, market watchers are uncertain whether the 2009-2010 winter has enough running time left to really pinch natural gas inventories.

“The natural gas market remains quiet and choppy at the lower levels arrived at after the decline of the prior few sessions,” said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “Weather forecasts continue to point to cooler-than-normal temperatures and above-average storage withdrawals over the next few weeks, which is normally supportive for prices.”

However, the analyst said that doesn’t appear to be the case this time. “The recent weakness, though, suggests some larger seasonal issues, with the cold not expected to rival the more intense cold snap of early January and less heating demand still to go,” Evans said. “The cold might have more success in supporting the cash market, but traders are recognizing that they are trading for March delivery, and conditions then may be less supportive.”

As if the onslaught of cold and snow were not enough, forecasters suggest that another cold juggernaut may be looming in the next week and a half. Currently the arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation have formed a huge barrier to the exit from North America of cold air from arctic latitudes. “No major big picture changes are noted today, but there are some forecast challenges,” said Matt Rogers of Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, MD. Rogers is studying the possibility of a large ridge in Western Canada in the nine- to 12-day period, which “argues for a potentially much stronger cold surge into the eastern U.S.” He added that there were “some hints of a brief break toward days 14-15 in the Midwest” following the next cold incursion into the Plains.

Analysts contend that at this stage of the heating season weather-driven price advances are more difficult to come by but acknowledge that an increase in heating requirements may essentially wipe out the inventory surplus. “Although the market appears to have priced in a large reduction in the year-over-year storage surplus during the next couple of months, it is also focusing further down the road where a potential upswing in LNG [liquefied natural gas] imports and larger production prospects will be restricting price gains further down the curve,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.

Due to the blizzard in Washington, DC, that has shut down the Federal government, the Energy Information Administration reported Tuesday that the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending Feb. 5 will be published at 10:30 a.m. EST on Friday — one day later than originally scheduled (see Daily GPI, Feb. 10). Early industry predictions appear to be centered around a withdrawal in the 165 Bcf to 185 Bcf range.

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