The futures market gave the impression it would finish the weekon a boring note, and for nearly the entire abbreviated tradingsession last Thursday it did just that-trading within a tighttwo-cent range. But that was before bears gave the market a littlepre-Christmas surprise by selling the market into the final bell.The prompt January contract finished 2.5 cents lower at $1.881.Estimated volume was a paltry 24,112 contracts.

Few traders were surprised by Thursday’s late drop, which theyfelt was par for the course in a month that has seen its fair shareof price swings and choppy trading.

But Ed Kennedy of Miami-based Pioneer Futures looks for theJanuary contract to expire in a fairly uneventful fashion. “Thereis just too much gas in the ground to sustain another rally, andforecasts calling for another cold air mass to move in after the1st could limit the downside. I look for January to go out in the$1.85-90 area,” he said.

Fred Gesser of Omaha-based Strategic Weather Services agreesthere will be another Arctic front the first week of next year.Gesser looks for a return to below-normal temperatures by Jan. 2-4in the Central U.S. with a migration to the Western U.S by Jan.6-7. “We have been touting this front for some time now, and allthe models are still very much in agreement.”

However, for the balance of January, Gesser expects normal- toabove-normal temperatures for much of the Southern U.S. and Easternseaboard. Parts of theUpper Midwest and Great Lakes region canexpect normal temperatures while areas of below-normal temperaturesare isolated in parts of Montana, Minnesota, and the Dakotas, headded.

His forecast is based on warmer than usual sea-surfacetemperatures off the coast of Spain and Africa. Because of thesewarm Atlantic waters, Icelandic and Hudson Vortex high-pressuresystems will remain at a more northern latitude, and therefore willhave less impact on cold air masses in the U.S. until February,Gesser said.

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