The summer of 2010 is likely to be warmer than normal for much of the country, with average temperatures nationwide “much warmer” than the summer of 2009, AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi said Monday.

“The warmest of the summer months relative to averages for the nation should be August, and our forecast is for overall warmth to last into September,” according to Bastardi, who said he expects to see temperatures several degrees above normal summer averages in the Northeast and in an area stretching from Colorado to West Texas and into the Southwest. The West Coast, extreme northern Plains and the northern half of the Mississippi Valley should remain relatively cool, though not as cool as last summer, he said.

In a separate forecast also issued on Monday, Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. said it expects the next three months to average warmer than normal across most of the United States, with the exception of parts of the central and northern Plains and Great Lakes states, thanks in large part to a collapsing El Nino pattern in the Pacific.

“Tropical and mid-latitude patterns have already transitioned into a pattern more typical of La Nina events,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “Because of this, we expect more cool temperatures in June across much of the western two-thirds of the country, with any significant heat confined to the Southeast U.S. By July and August, we expect the heat to become established across the northern U.S, first in the Pacific Northwest in July and then spreading across the Northeast by August…while we do expect a warm summer on the whole across the U.S., we don’t expect the magnitude of the heat to be especially notable, especially early in the summer.

“For the June-August period as a whole, we are forecasting 874 population-weighted cooling degree days, 4-5% more than last year and about 6% more than the 1971-2000 mean.”

The WSI forecast for June calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures across most of the western and central United States, with warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast and much-warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Southeast.

“Gas demand for cooling will likely be lower than normal in most of the country, but offset slightly by warmer temperatures in the Southeast and Northeast,” Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) director of power and gas Paul Flemming said in a statement issued in conjunction with WSI’s outlook. “Early season heat events are less likely in the western markets.”

In July WSI sees a relative cooling trend moving into the Northeast and near-normal temperatures in the North Central area, with warmer-than-normal temperatures dominating all of the rest of the country.

“Gas demand from the power sector for cooling will likely be strong in Gulf Coast and western regions and will be offset somewhat by cooler temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest” during July, Flemming said. “Warmer expectations in Texas for July would typically indicate higher probabilities of heat events, but WSI is forecasting overall warmer temperatures with upside excursions of less magnitude, lowering the potential for severe price spikes.”

In August warmer-than-normal temperatures are forecast for all of the country except the Southeast and South Central regions, which are expected to be cooler than normal, WSI said. Gas demand for cooling during the month should be weaker in the Gulf Coast regions but could be offset by higher demand in the Northeast, according to Flemming.

“Power prices in the Northeast markets could be volatile in August given the warmer-than-normal temperature projections,” Flemming said.

The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year norm (1971-2000). The next WSI forecast, for the July-September period, is scheduled to be issued June 22.

The consensus forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, is for a more-active-than-usual season. Bastardi has said rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico and the fading El Nino pattern could create 16-18 named storms during the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which would make 2010 one of the most active seasons on record (see Daily GPI, May 20). That forecast is generally inline with recent forecasts issued by WSI (see Daily GPI, April 21) and scientists at Colorado State University (see Daily GPI, April 8). WSI is scheduled to release an updated hurricane forecast Wednesday (May 26).

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has also predicted an active Atlantic hurricane season based on the faltering El Nino (see Daily GPI, Feb. 8). NOAA is scheduled to release an updated hurricane outlook on Thursday (May 27).

Nine named storms formed during 2009, including three hurricanes, two of them intense (Category Three or greater). From 1950-2009 the Atlantic basin has produced an average 10 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

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