Both the overall number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects that ultimately are built and the total volumes of LNG exported may be significantly less than once projected for the United States, experts said Tuesday at the LDC Gas Forum Mid-Continent in Chicago.

A Repsol SA executive also indicated the global energy giant is looking at all options for its under-used Canaport LNG import facility in New Brunswick (NB), including possibly an East Coast export facility for North American supplies.

Repsol Energy North American Vice President Vince Morrissette, as well as executives from BG Group plc and Deloitte MarketPoint LLC, agreed that domestic gas exports most likely would be 3-6 Bcf/d, but depending on circumstances, it’s possible that less than 3 Bcf/d could be transported overseas.

When Repsol sold all of its LNG assets except Canaport to Royal Dutch Shell plc (see Daily GPI, Feb. 27), it specifically kept the St. John, NB terminal, but Morrissette noted that the import terminal has faltered as U.S. unconventional gas supplies have grown (see Daily GPI, July 25, 2012). Repsol is now evaluating export possibilities at the New Brunswick facility that otherwise have been viewed as a possible peaking supply facility in the East, he said.

“We are evaluating exports there, and there are a couple of different supply projects there,” said Morrissette. He cited a “huge shale play” that hasn’t been drilled near the NB facility. “That may or may not come to fruition, but it would be an obvious candidate for liquefaction exports.”

There is also the prospect of Marcellus Shale supplies being shipped north to New Brunswick for export. “We’re taking a close look at that, too,” said Morrissette. He and other panelists emphasized that the market ultimately would decide how much LNG and which North America export terminals would succeed.

A decade ago there were 40 U.S. proposals for LNG import terminals, but only eight were built, noted Deloitte MarketPoint’s George Given, vice president of advisory services. Similarly, he said only a small number of the current 30 export facilities now on the table ultimately will be constructed.

Clearly, said Given, North American export projects have an advantage globally because of price and market conditions, adding that market forces ultimately would decide. BG’s Julie Nelson, who directs government/public relations, agreed that the market would decide.

Deloitte MarketPoint has a large stake in North American LNG exports, including projects in British Columbia and on the Gulf Coast (see Daily GPI,June 24; Jan. 27, 2012).

There are a number of other nations, including Australia, which is leading the way with major new liquefaction facilities, but like Canada, those projects are operating in stranded markets, something the United States does not have to deal with, the panel said. Given noted that Australia soon would pass Qatar as the world’s largest LNG supplier, with no domestic alternatives.

Drawing on a worldwide gas case developed by Deloitte MarketPoint, Given said the outlook for North American natural gas prices remains depressed. In addition to the surplus in shale gas supplies, he said the recession also has contributed to low gas prices. On the shale gas supplies, they now are about one-third of U.S. supply, and “no one saw coming,” he said. Deloitte, like many other analysts, predicts that the United States will become a net gas exporter by 2017, with a lot of the supplies tied to Mexico.

“The impact of that could be quite a milestone,” said Given of the net export forecast. “I think Mexico needs a little more attention. Although we do have some LNG coming out of Mexico, Mexican natural gas demand is very significant and it could have an important role for the United States.”