Flat to barely higher numbers continued to dominate the cash market Wednesday as sub-freezing lows accompanied by snow in some cases were in the next-day forecasts for the Midwest, Northeast, the eastern half of the South, the Rockies and most of Canada. Gains ranged as high as a little more than a dime in Transco’s Zone 6-New York pool but were in single digits in nearly all instances.

All losses were in single digits in ranging from a couple of pennies to nearly a dime.

March futures managed to end their prompt-month reign with an increase of 3.8 cents to $4.816 following four straight days of losses (see related story).

Northeast citygates tended to see most of the largest increases as The Weather Channel predicted that a storm moving northward from the South Atlantic coast would be bringing heavy, wet snow to the lower sections of the region Thursday. Expected lows in the teens will keep heating load fairly abundant in the Midwest.

The western South is reaching more moderate conditions again, but its eastern end will continue to see below-freezing lows for a bit longer. Even Florida Gas Transmission was warning of the potential for an Overage Alert Day because of colder conditions returning to its market area. Status quo forecasts remained in effect for the West: frigid lows in the Rockies and Western Canada with chilly to mild weather elsewhere.

A couple of minor supply shortfall issues were surfacing in the West. Kern River said system linepack had dipped below its desired minimum level Wednesday. And El Paso, after warning Tuesday of a potential Strained Operating Condition (SOC) being declared because of shipper drafting causing its Washington Ranch storage facility to be in maximum withdrawal mode, said the SOC probability remained high Wednesday due to low linepack.

A Gulf Coast trader said North Texas had experienced “small flurries” of snow Tuesday, but most of the predicted snowfall had gone farther south in the state. Noting that Thursday’s trading will be for flows through Sunday due to the month-to-month transition occurring Monday, she expected the weekend factor of falling industrial load to overcome Wednesday’s small futures gain in making prices mostly softer Thursday. Friday deals will be for Monday-only flows, she observed.

The trader said she indexed all March baseload business, as usual, and did most of it Monday. She usually likes to finish next-month trading before the traditional opening of bidweek, but she said it seemed like the compressed nature of the February calendar made it take longer than usual for her company’s clients to submit their offers.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest said it was “not terribly cold” in her area Wednesday, and temperatures should be warming into the 30s and 40s next week. She reported paying March last-day settlement basis of plus 23 cents into Consumers Energy and plus 25 cents into Michcon.

The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts below-normal temperatures during the March 1-5 workweek everywhere south of a line running from the northern edge of Virginia into the northeastern corner of Nebraska and then extending westward into eastern Nevada before curving back to the southeast into southwestern Arizona. The NWS six- to 10-day forecast posted Tuesday afternoon calls for above-normal readings throughout the northern tier of states from Washington through New England.

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