There obviously was little, if any, “storm hype” in either the cash or futures markets Monday. Prices were softer at a slight majority of cash trading points as cooling load was expected to decline in some areas Tuesday while staying subpar for mid-August in others, while prompt-month futures fell 20.4 cents.

Most points saw generally modest losses ranging from 2-3 cents to nearly 35 cents. The rest of the market was flat to nearly 45 cents higher, with the largest gains concentrated in the Rockies/San Juan and Northeast areas.

No shut-ins related to Tropical Storm Fay were reported Monday and only two companies said they had evacuated nonessential offshore personnel. It appeared that the storm’s primary effect on the gas market would be demand destruction as its rains cool off Florida. However, Florida Gas Transmission issued an Overage Alert Day Monday due to pre-storm hot weather in Florida and low linepack (see Transportation Notes). Florida Gas Zone 3 in the production area fell only a couple of pennies or so.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected that Fay will make mainland landfall Tuesday morning on the southwest coast of Florida and proceed northward through the Sunshine State peninsula before moving into coastal Georgia early Thursday.

Shell Oil said Monday it had evacuated 425 offshore workers, primarily from its East operations area in the Gulf of Mexico, during the weekend but did not expect any more. “Given current forecasts, it does not appear that Fay will impact Shell Gulf of Mexico assets, [and] therefore we have concluded evacuations,” a Shell news release said. “We will continue to monitor the system and respond to developments. If the storm remains on its current track, there will be no further evacuations and we now begin planning the safe redeployment of those [evacuated] personnel.

Marathon was the only other producer to report worker evacuations but like Shell did not shut in production, according to a Reuters news report.

At 5 p.m. EDT a hurricane warning was in effect for the southwestern coast of Florida from Flamingo to Anna Maria Island, NHC said. The agency discontinued a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas, and for the Florida mainland east of Flamingo to Card Sound Bridge. A tropical storm warning remained in effect for the latter area.

At that point the center of Fay was about 145 miles south of Fort Myers, FL, and moving to the north-northwest at nearly 12 mph, NHC said. It anticipated a turn toward the north and slower speed Monday night.

Weather 2000 noted that the average climatological date that the “F” storm forms each season is Sept. 10, “which makes 2008 activity well ahead of pace and highlights how the ‘window closed’ states heard throughout this summer were both inappropriate and misleading.”

Besides the anticipated power generation load suppression by Fay in Florida, the other end of the South will be cooler than normal Tuesday as wet weather is expected in East Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Louisiana, The Weather Channel said.

A cold front will be taking temperatures lower in the Northeast Tuesday, while there will be a mix of both slight warming trends and slight cooling trends in various sections of the Midwest.

An eastward-moving cold front will keep the Pacific Northwest cool Tuesday following some unusually high temperatures last week. Conditions should remain moderate to warm in the Rockies and interior California, while parts of the desert Southwest will continue to see their normal triple-digit summer highs.

There was an early bounce in cash quotes, said a Calgary-based producer, but he didn’t think it was based on the tropical storm. Cash trading had already been finished trading by the time the screen started moving into negative territory, so its weakness wasn’t reflected by relatively steady cash numbers after the initial bounce, he said. Because of Monday’s 20.4-cent futures drop and mostly moderate mid-August weather, he expects minor declines in the physical market Tuesday.

It’s hot in his area, “but not as hot as it could be,” said a utility buyer in the South. His company’s current burns and storage injections have been holding at a steady pace in recent weeks, he added.

Fifteen new rigs joined the U.S. hunt for natural gas during the week ending Aug. 15, bringing the total to 1,586, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). Three rigs quit the search in the Gulf of Mexico, Baker Hughes said, but 18 were added onshore. Its tally is up 3% from a month ago and 7% above the year-earlier level.

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