Energy imports into the United States and Canada will be “down to almost zero” by 2040, an ExxonMobil Corp. executive said Thursday.

Bill Colton, vice president of corporate strategic planning, made those observations during a conference call to unveil the company’s “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.” The annual outlook is forecasting that global energy demand in 2040 will be about 30% higher than it was in 2010, with natural gas making the biggest gains.

“If you look at North America, including Canada [but not Mexico], imports are down to almost zero,” said Colton. “The actual number is 1 million b/d. In the Americas, all of the Americas, there actually is a surplus, with several countries becoming exporters,” including Venezuela and Colombia.

The impact of new technologies that are expanding global energy supplies, including advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques, “have unlocked a century’s worth of natural gas across the United States,” the report said. ExxonMobil estimates that natural gas from shale and similar sources “will account for 30% of global gas production by 2040.”

Oil would remain the most widely used fuel, mostly because of transportation, but natural gas would eclipse coal in the next three decades. Coal’s market share is set to decline for the first time in modern history. In North America, oil and gas imports continue to decline over the period.

The natural gas market is growing “so fast” because “coal has unique environmental challenges…” Even though coal today “is the most economical followed by natural gas…the economics shift where governments have policies to impose the cost of carbon on a number of fuels. Coal becomes much less competitive because of the higher carbon content per Btu of power.”

Nuclear energy, a formerly popular alternative, has lost ground since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan this year. Of the alternative energy sources, wind is the fastest growing but it’s “fundamentally limited in how fast it can grow” because it’s intermittent power, Colton said.

“Gas is the practical choice. It’s easy to build and very efficient.”

ExxonMobil extended its long-term forecast, which it publishes annually, to 2040 for the first time; previous reports were to 2030. According to the latest findings, global energy demand in 2040 is forecast to be led by growth in developing regions that include China, India and Africa.

“The ‘Outlook for Energy’ demonstrates that by applying innovation and technology, the world does not need to choose between economic growth and environmental stewardship,” said CEO Rex W. Tillerson.

Rising demand for electricity continues to be the “single largest influence on energy trends,” according to the report. ExxonMobil is projecting that global electricity demand will rise by 80%. “By 2040 four out of every 10 units of energy produced in the world will be going toward the production of electricity.”

The mix of fuels used to produce electricity also is forecast to change dramatically, as global nations shift from coal in favor of lower-carbon sources such as natural gas. “By 2040, 30% percent of the world’s electricity will be produced using natural gas, while demand for coal will peak and experience its first long-term decline in modern history,” the report said.

The latest report reveals the impact of new technologies that are expanding global energy supplies, including advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques “that have unlocked a century’s worth of natural gas across the United States. ExxonMobil estimates that natural gas from shale and similar sources will account for 30% of global gas production by 2040.”

The report was developed by a team using a combination of public and proprietary sources, ExxonMobil noted. The Irving, TX-based producer noted that it publishes the report every year not only to guide its global investment decisions but also to “encourage broader understanding of energy issues among policymakers and the public.

Among the key findings:

Tillerson said in a speech last week to the World Petroleum Congress in Qatar that liquefied natural gas was expected to replace coal as the second largest global energy source by 2040 (see related story).

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