Europe could face a 30 billion cubic meter (Bcm) natural gas shortfall for the 2023-2024 winter if the European Union (EU) doesn’t start planning ahead now, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report released Thursday.

Gazprom map

That’s the equivalent of about 1 Tcf of natural gas. And even though European gas storage facilities are currently 95% full, or about 5 Bcm (176 Bcf) above their 5-year average, it is wrong to expect the same conditions in 2023, the IEA warned.

“With the recent mild weather and lower gas prices, there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe’s gas supplies, but we are by no means out of the woods yet,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

A gas supply shortfall next year could mean Europe would lack half...