Buoyed by Tuesday’s expiration-day screen spike of 32.4 cents and almost nothing else, prices for end-of-March flows saw substantial gains Wednesday. Increases were fairly consistent and spread evenly through all market areas in ranging from a little less than 20 cents to nearly 35 cents in nearly all cases (the exception was a rise of a little more than a dime by OGT in the Midcontinent).

Sources agreed that with mild weather occupying most parts of the U.S. and Eastern Canada, and storage attitudes remaining essentially bearish, there was little besides prior-day futures strength to justify Wednesday’s across-the-board cash advance. Even Western Canada wasn’t especially cold. Although Calgary was expected to register a sub-freezing low of 21 degrees F. Wednesday, its neighbor to the west, Vancouver, was predicted to not get below 41 degrees.

Although the spring season has finally widely manifested itself, there are a few pockets of winter-like resistance remaining besides Alberta. Snow was in the forecast Wednesday for eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico, The Weather Channel said, and was also possible in sections of the central Plains.

And as the weather warms up, a high number of nuclear outages may be contributing to power generation loads for gas. According to NGI‘s NRC [Nuclear Regulatory Commission] Power Reactor Status Report, a whopping 21 out of the nation’s 104 active nuclear reactors were at zero operational levels Wednesday for whatever reasons.

A producer who trades at Northeast citygates said regional prices were a bit weaker at first but then rallied. Because Gulf Coast and Northeast numbers rose by roughly similar amounts, there was little change in basis spreads, he said. The market area is a “no man’s land” as far as weather goes, he added, with little in either heating or cooling demand. The New York City metropolitan area was in the low 60s Wednesday, although it should be a little cooler Thursday, he said. With such weak weather fundamentals and no transportation constraints of any consequence, he couldn’t see any reason for prices to be higher other than support from Tuesday’s futures advance.

The screen will give a smaller amount of impetus for Thursday’s launch of the April aftermarket. The natural gas contract for May rose nearly 6 cents in its prompt-month debut, and while crude oil retreated about a quarter, Nymex’s heating oil and unleaded gasoline offerings surged following bullish inventory reports Wednesday morning.

The producer said he was unaware of much bidweek activity still going on Wednesday, and that there should be almost nothing left for Thursday other than a few deals to tie up loose ends. Since mild weather is in the general forecast for a good while now, he looks for “mostly lackluster trading” through at least the first week or two of April.

©Copyright 2005Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.