Natural gas bulls have taken it on the chin so far this winter, but Henry Hub spot prices remain on track to average $4.58/MMBtu from December through February, according to the latest forecasting from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The winter price prediction, published Tuesday as part of the December edition of the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, reflects a nearly $1 discount versus the prior month’s forecast, when the agency called for an average price of $5.51 for November through February.

EIA said its forecast Henry Hub spot price “generally declines through 2022” to an average of $3.98 for the full year on rising domestic production and slowing growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Prices at the national benchmark averaged $5.05 in...