American households can expect significant increases in home heating costs this winter, including a 30% increase in natural gas expenditures versus last winter, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday.

The agency said as part of its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that it expects a 3% increase in average U.S. heating degree days this winter compared to last, based on forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Winter/winter, EIA said it expects households to spend 54% more on propane, 43% more on heating oil and 6% more on electricity.

A scenario in which temperatures are 10% colder “significantly increases forecast expenditures,” while 10% warmer-than-expected temperatures still would see households paying more because...