Brent crude oil prices will average $116/bbl in the second quarter, and Henry Hub spot natural gas prices will average $3.83/MMBtu over the same period, though events in Ukraine have clouded the outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in updated projections published Tuesday.

In the March edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the agency predicted a falling Brent oil price in the second half of this year (2H2022) and into 2023. The latest STEO modeled a 2H2022 oil price of $102 and a 2023 price of $89.

However, prognostication in the energy space is fraught with pitfalls in the best of times. Recent events have clearly made the task even more difficult, a fact EIA researchers acknowledged in a special statement released alongside this month’s...