Driven by the Permian Basin, oil production out of seven key U.S. onshore regions is set to grow from May to June, while natural gas production is on track to decline, according to the updated projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

gas production

In its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), EIA said it expects the Anadarko, Appalachia and Permian basins, as well as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara shales, to produce a combined 7.733 million b/d in June, up slightly from an estimated 7.707 million b/d in May. 

The Permian, by far the most active U.S. onshore play, is expected to grow output by 54,000 b/d m/m to 4.589 million b/d in June, offsetting projected declines in the Anadarko (down 7,000 b/d), Bakken (down 7,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (down 8,000 b/d) and Niobrara (down 7,000 b/d).

Natural gas production from the seven regions is expected to total 83.571 Bcf/d in June, down 53 MMcf/d from 83.624 Bcf/d produced in May. The Haynesville (up 118 MMcf/d) and the Permian (up 59 MMcf/d) are each expected to grow output month/month, while the Anadarko (down 50 MMcf/d), Appalachia (down 52 MMcf/d), Bakken (down 55 MMcf/d), Eagle Ford (down 32 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (down 41 MMcf/d) are on track for month/month declines, according to EIA.

The overall backlog of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells across the seven regions declined by 241 to 6,857 from March to April, the latest DPR data show. The Permian, with the largest backlog to begin with, posted the largest month/month decline, lowering its DUC total by 121 to 2,932. 

The Niobrara (down 39), Bakken (down 26), Eagle Ford (down 23), Anadarko (down 21), Appalachia (down 10) and Haynesville (down 1) all saw their DUC totals decline month/month as well, according to the DPR.

EIA expects new-well oil production per rig to increase by 12 b/d on average from May to June for the seven regions. New-well natural gas production per rig is set to decline by 122 Mcf/d on average.

The DPR uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.