U.S. household expenditures for natural gas this winter are on track to be the lowest in nine years, while consumption is poised to finish the 2011-2012 heating season at a 10-year low, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The average household is expected to have paid about $629 to heat its home with natural gas this winter season, down 13% from last winter and the lowest projected gas heating expense since $599 for the 2002-2003 winter, according to the EIA’s revised heating fuels costs in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, which was released Tuesday (see Daily GPI, March 7). The heating season officially ends March 31.

The low gas expenditures for households come as no surprise, given that the country has endured one of the warmest winters in years and entered the heating season with the gas futures price at the lowest level since 2001-2002. The number of heating degree days from October through February was down 11% compared to the 30-year average, according to the EIA.

“Mild weather [has been] the big driver of lower natural gas expenditures this winter for households,” the EIA said. It estimates that a household that heats with gas will have consumed an average of about 62.3 Mcf this winter, which is down 10% from last year’s level (70 Mcf) and the lowest estimated household winter gas heating use in more than 10 years.

In October, in its Winter Fuels Outlook for 2011-2012, EIA originally projected that an average household heating with gas would spend $19 (3%) more this winter than the average of $700 that it spent last winter (see Daily GPI, Oct. 13, 2011). About one-half of U.S. households use gas as their primary heating fuel.

But when the price for physical gas traded at Henry Hub cratered and stayed below the $3 level in mid-January, the EIA scaled back its projections for household heating expenditures, not only for natural gas but for heating oil, propane and electricity (see Daily GPI, Jan. 11). In fact, it said this marks the first winter in a decade that household expenditures are expected to be less for all major heating fuels than in the prior year.

With the traditional end of winter only a few weeks away, an estimated 2,433 Bcf of natural gas still remained in inventory as of March 2. This is 739 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 792 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,641 Bcf.

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