Amid lower-than-expected heating demand this winter, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Tuesday it is raising its projected end-March storage carryout to more than 1.9 Tcf, a 27% increase compared to projections issued in January.

A 1.9 Tcf end-March carryout would also represent a 23% surplus to the prior five-year average, EIA said in its updated Short-Term Energy Outlook. 

EIA said it now expects Henry Hub to average around $3/MMBtu in 2023, down 50% year/year. Perhaps unsurprisingly given the precipitous downward trajectory natural gas futures have traced this winter, EIA’s latest Henry Hub outlook reflects a hefty 50% discount versus January forecasts. Last month, EIA modeled an average Henry Hub spot price of $3.40 for 2023.

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