Classifying it as “once-in-30-years type coolness,” Weather 2000 said the eastern third of the United States has been devoid of summer heat and sun during the May-August 2003 period, with no real signs of change on the horizon. The New York City-based forecasting and consulting firm said East Coasters must travel west to America’s heartland to find any signs of summer 2003 warmth.

“Like with everything in weather statistics, this doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a single day that has not been hot, but heat occurrences are way below where they should be, even for an ‘average summer,'” Weather 2000 said in its most recent forecast. “New York City, for example, is just about wrapping up its typical hottest three weeks of the calendar year, and there hasn’t been a single day hitting 90 degrees since July 5th.” The group noted that the technically “above normal” days that have sprouted up, have essentially come about through cloudy, humid evenings.

However, Weather 2000 said as most rain and storm tracks remain focused on East of the Mississippi River (for the South), and East of the Ohio Valley (for the North), many Central U.S. regions have been drying out the past two months, pushing some upper-midwest and Plains locations into warmer temperatures.

“So, as advised, it should not be surprising to see locales like Dallas, Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines and Minneapolis see some above normal day streaks,” Weather 2000 said, noting that “the closer one moves toward the East Coast, the more this warmth will be muted or non-existent.” The group added that it will be quite difficult to push Chicago to see any more 90 degree days before Labor Day, adding that the city is already far behind pace in that department.

Following what it called a “Monsoonal Hiccup” during late July and early August, Weather 2000 said the West is rebounding to hot levels. “Hierarchy of heat continues, until more July-like widespread hot anomalies emerge by mid-month.”

In the short term, the group believes the West will shape up as follows, from hottest to mildest: the Rockies; Western Plains; Southwest; California; and the Pacific Northwest.

As for the tropical storm outlook, Weather 2000 said it remains unchanged from its July 29 analysis. “After a very quick start to the season (4th named storm by mid-July; and should have been 5), we should be entering a small respite in tropical activity,” the group said. “Any storms that do form, will likely occur in the Gulf, Western Caribbean, Bahamas or Western Atlantic, as opposed to the more classic late-summer Cape Verde storms that chug along picking up momentum and intensity.

Shearing and upper-atmospheric tele-connections will likely temper such development for the next 1-2 weeks. But thereafter, a resurgence in tropical/hurricane evolution should take place, in synchrony with the historical heart of the season (mid-August-mid-October).”

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