According to renowned hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, it’s never too early to start thinking about the next hurricane season, particularly the 2003 season, which is expected to be more active than normal. Gray expects 12 named storms, eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes (category 3-5) in 2003.

There were an above average number of named storms in the Atlantic Basin this hurricane season, 12 compared to an average of nine, but only four became hurricanes compared to an average of 5.9 over the past 50 years. Eight named storms formed in September alone, setting a new monthly record. And despite the small number of hurricanes in 2002, it was a busy season for the United States because of seven direct landfalls and one indirect hit on the coast of North Carolina.

In his extended range forecast for the 2003 season, Gray said he expects the recent upturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity, which began in 1995, to continue in 2003. “We anticipate an above average probability for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones and U.S. hurricane landfall,” he said.

“The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 30% above the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2003 to be about 140% of the long-term average. This forecast is based on our recently developed 6-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past data.

“There were five hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics similar to what we observe in November 2002 and what we anticipate for the summer/fall 2003 period,” Gray said. “These best analog years are 1952, 1958, 1964, 1970, and 1984. We anticipate that the 2003 seasonal hurricane conditions will be somewhat above the average values for these five analog years due to an anticipated active thermohaline circulation. Thus, based on this analysis, we expect 2003 to be an active hurricane season and in line with the average of six of the last eight years (1995, 1996; 1998-2001). We anticipate 2003 to be considerably more active than the average season during the inactive 1970-1994 period.”

Gray anticipates a termination of the current moderate-intensity El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and a continuation of warm sea surface temperatures in the North and tropical Atlantic, as has occurred in most years since 1995. “High pressure has been developing in the northern tropical Pacific indicative that stronger trade winds are reestablishing themselves. Stronger trades increase upwelling in the eastern Pacific and usually signal the end of warm ENSO conditions.”

Regarding landfall probabilities, Gray sees a 93% chance that a hurricane will hit the United States next year, a 68% chance that an intense hurricane will hit the coast and a 70% chance that a hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast.

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