Competition to secure LNG cargoes for next winter could intensify as the year progresses, but to what extent Europe and Asia face off depends heavily on a variety of factors, including plant outages, supply, demand, and of course, the weather. 

The global liquified natural gas market has mixed forecasts on what direction top Asian LNG buyers, China, Japan, and South Korea might take this winter. If all three, or only China returns to the market as a strong buyer, Europe could again compete with Asia for the super-chilled fuel.

“The Russia-Ukraine crisis has fundamentally changed the structure of LNG,” said Sam Reynolds, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). “Europe is no longer a balancing buyer that simply absorbs...