Russia’s war in Ukraine threatens global crude supplies, but a resurgence of the coronavirus in China is curbing demand as the United States and other countries prepare to release oil from strategic reserves. The result: volatile prices.

Oil Imports

Brent crude prices on Tuesday climbed more than 6% to about $104/bbl intraday following OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo’s warning in a speech that the war could ultimately cut much deeper into global supplies.

“We could potentially see the loss of more than 7 million b/d of Russian oil and other liquids exports, resulting from current and future sanctions or other voluntary actions,” he told European Union (EU) members. “Considering the current demand outlook, it would be nearly impossible to replace a loss in volumes of this...