ConocoPhillips expects to see its third quarter 2020 production suffer another double-digit blow and realized prices take a roughly $15 hit as the Houston-based independent curtailed volumes to combat the weak oil environment.
In an operations update issued Wednesday, ConocoPhillips said it expects to report a roughly 262,000 boe/d year/year decline (19.7%) in third quarter 2020 production volumes. Curtailments for the quarter were around 90,000 boe/d, with about 65,000 boe/d taking place in the Lower 48, along with 15,000 boe/d in the Surmont operation in Canada and the remainder in Malaysia and Norway.
In addition to curtailments, the decline also resulted from seasonal turnaround activity in Canada, the Asia Pacific region and Alaska.
ConocoPhillips reported a 24% decrease in 2Q2020 production volumes.
Based on estimated average realized prices, the company estimated cash from operations of the curtailed volumes in 3Q2020 to be around $150 million. The company fully restored output in the Lower 48, Alaska and Canada by the end of the quarter.
The company expects 3Q2020 production volumes to be between 1.05 and 1.07 million boe/d, down from total volumes of around 1.32 million boe/d a year ago. Lower 48 production was estimated to be 355,000 boe/d, including 195,000 b/d of crude oil and 570,000 Mcf/d of natural gas. The company’s Alaskan output was projected to be 200,000 boe/d, with 185,000 b/d weighted to oil and natural gas and natural gas liquids comprising the remaining volumes. Libya production was projected to be only 1,000 boe/d, down from 44,000 boe/d last year.
Given ongoing price volatility, ConocoPhillips expects to realize prices between $30-32/boe during the third quarter, which reflects the impacts of curtailment ramp-ups, as well as normal pricing variability due to timing and local differentials. This is down from an average $47.07/boe a year ago. Oil was projected to average around $37/bbl in the Lower 48 for the third quarter, while natural gas was expected to average $1.50/MMBtu.
ConocoPhillips intends to resume share repurchases of $1 billion during the fourth quarter, which would be funded from available cash on the balance sheet previously indicated to be between $6-7 billion. It’s projecting an adjusted net loss of between $210 and $260 million for the quarter. Capital expenditures are expected to be $750-820 million, while about $385 million has been set aside for acquisitions.
During the third quarter, the company completed the previously announced acquisition of additional Montney acreage in Canada from Kelt Exploration Ltd.
ConocoPhillips is scheduled to release 3Q2020 earnings on Oct. 29, with a conference call set for noon ET on that date.
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