Prices crept mildly higher in most cases Tuesday, continuing tofeed on an early preview of winter in much of the East. A greatmajority of points ranged from flat to about a nickel higher.Exceptions included downturns for Northwest-domestic, SouthernCalifornia border and a few Northeast citygates, along with aPG&E citygate gain of about 15 cents.

Despite huge upticks in the crude oil and heating oil futurescontracts, a slightly softer natural gas screen provided littleinput for the cash market. Cold weather was expected to last intotoday but then yield to a warming trend that could arrest anyfurther upward movement in prices. However, a marketer said hisweather consultant is forecasting a return of significantly coldtemperatures in northern market areas next week.

In a development that could inject more excitement into whatmany consider a general market lull currently, New York City-basedPIRA Energy Group made a “preliminary estimate” of a meager 7 Bcfstorage injection report by AGA next week (that would reflect thisweek’s refill volume). A spokesman said PIRA based its projectionon forecasts for degree day heating numbers through Friday, andalso factored in data on gas production, power demand and imports.If Pira is right and the market only injects 7 Bcf this week (to beannounced by the AGA Oct. 18) amid a relatively weak cold snap, itwill be viewed as exceedingly bullish, compared to the AGA’sfive-year average of 58 Bcf for the same period. In previousinjection cycles it hasn’t been until the last week of October thatsingle digit injections were seen.

Meanwhile, sources continued to predict AGA will report a numberthis afternoon similar to last week’s 78 Bcf.

A western trader said several factors contributed to thePG&E citygate standing out with Tuesday’s largest advance.Prices ran up pretty hard in volatile trading, he said. Theutility’s system is trending toward a short supply system, he said,and the cuts on the TransCanada-British Columbia system are stilllimiting border imports through today. But there also have beensome supply cuts from the Southwest, and some citygate traders havebeen short through the first 10 days of the month, he said. Inaddition, people are still struggling to refill storage in theConsuming Region West, which was still recording net withdrawals inAGA’s reports as recently as last month, he noted.

It’s been better to buy at the PG&E citygate than at Malinthis week, the trader said. Although Monday’s Malin-citygate spreadof 13 cents widened to nearly 30 cents Tuesday, there’s still atransport squeeze, he added, estimating total Redwood Path variablecosts at around 35 cents.

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