Despite severe erosion of Nymex futures prices for natural gas, crude oil, heating oil and Appalachian coal Monday morning, cash gas numbers refused to “follow the screen.” Cash quotes ranged from flat to a few cents higher or lower in most market areas. Rockies points were recovering from Friday’s plunge that had a few priced below a dollar for a while. Deals for CIG, Cheyenne Hub and Questar gas could still be found in the $0.90s Monday, but generally they were in the $1.00s, according to a couple of marketers.

A few points fell by as much as a dime or registered gains in the teens, but a great majority of Monday’s prices were a nickel or less to either side of flat.

The autumn season, which officially began Saturday, brought with it an early blast of cold weather east of the Rockies that helped keep physical gas prices relatively firm, sources said. A cold front followed by a strong high-pressure system would cause cities from Michigan to Texas to experience temperatures that are 10-15 degrees below average by Monday night, a Weather Channel forecaster said. Frost advisories were issued for parts of the Midwest, and the front was expected to push thunderstorms and colder weather into the Northeast Monday afternoon.

The PG&E citygate saw one of the day’s biggest gains of nearly twenty cents, as utility linepack was projected to go deep into the “red zone” at midweek, a marketer said. Granted, linepack is on the low side, he went on, “but PG&E will adjust as necessary by cutting back or halting storage injections. I don’t think there will be an OFO, but some people were assuming one might be issued. Gate prices retreated after it became obvious there would be no OFO.” He said the citygate got as high as $2.02-05, but ended the morning around $1.90.

Some traders seem to have “pulled in their horns,” one producer told Daily GPI. It’s a tough market to trade in right now, and some people are growing a bit short-tempered about it, he added. But many trading operations “have mostly had a good year, their books are all in the black, and rather than screw up their good fortune by taking unnecessary risk, they are generally ready to call it a year.”

Hurricane Humberto formed over the weekend, but never was a source of concern for the gas market. Humberto was north-northwest of Bermuda at midday Monday, and was on a north-northeast tracking, which would keep it well out in the Atlantic and moving toward colder waters that would sap its strength.

A producer said buyers were understandably reluctant to commit early on October gas, preferring to wait a couple of days for not only the Nymex settlement and the latest AGA report, but also to see if anything develops in the U.S. war on terrorism. “Sending boats [warships in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean] isn’t cutting it. People want to wait and see where the market is going before they buy in.”

California basis for October is extremely weak, according to a couple of western traders reporting the PG&E citygate at minus 8.5-6.5 cents, border-SoCalGas at minus 14-12 cents, and Malin at minus 43-40 cents. The huge drop-off from respective September basis ranges of plus 27.5-35 cents, plus 21.5-28 cents a,nd minus 2.5 to plus 10 cents, is largely due to October being “a true shoulder month,” said one trader, while the other added, “It’s just a case of nobody wanting the gas because the state’s storage facilities are so close to full.” He backed up the border basis range with fixed-price quotes of $1.77 and $1.78 done Monday.

Basis is holding up more strongly in the Midcontinent/Midwest market, said a trader there. He reported the Chicago citygate at plus 1.5 cents and Panhandle Eastern at minus 9 cents, both in the vicinity of their September averages. However, he went on to say that “index deals [for October] are getting even more heavily discounted than they were in the last couple of bidweeks.”

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