Some light warming trends notwithstanding, next-day heating load remained heavy Wednesday and continued to push prices higher at nearly all points. Sub-freezing lows remained plentiful in the overall forecast for Thursday, and some locations in the Rockies, Midwest and Western Canada could expect to see temperatures again sinking to around zero or less.

However, in a sign that this week’s weather-based bullishness is “cooling down,” so to speak, many of Wednesday’s upticks were smaller than those on Tuesday, and a few flat to about 20 cents lower numbers in the West prevented a repeat of Tuesday’s across the board increases.

In addition to the cold, a prior-day advance of 14.3 cents by January futures helped propel most of the market to gains ranging from a little less than a nickel to nearly 85 cents. However, the screen has negative guidance for Thursday’s cash market after falling by 21.6 cents after starting the day in positive territory (see related story).

A major winter storm raging in the Northeast created the largest gains at regional citygates, with Transco Zone 6-New York leading the ascent and achieving an average of about $6.60. Although the storm will have departed to Canada by Thursday, The Weather Channel (TWC) said, there won’t be any appreciable temperature relief. It said highs will largely remain limited to the 20s and 30s Thursday, and lows will dip into the teens and 20s by Friday morning.

Meanwhile, lows in the teens, single digits and below zero will continue to stoke gas-fired furnace use from the Midwest through the Upper Plains into the Rockies and the western half of Canada.

Although some parts of the eastern South were expected to see thermometer levels below freezing, the region’s western half was largely due to escape such conditions but still be colder than normal with lows in the 30s.

Despite forecasts of slightly warmer temperatures in the Rockies, the region will still fail to get above freezing, and that was producing the suspicion of wellhead freeze-offs. Bentek Energy analyst Jodi Quinnell said notices of Opal Plant restrictions due to Kern River bulletin board reports of reduced production in the Big Piney gathering field behind the plant didn’t say so specifically, but it sure sounded like some wells were out due to freeze-offs. Wind chill is the main thing affecting the Rockies production area currently, Quinnell said.

She also noted that Kinder Morgan Interstate had issued a Critical Time OFO east of its Big Springs location due to continuing heavy demand in Kansas and Nebraska, where Omaha lows were expected to be below zero again Thursday.

A marketer in the Lower Midwest answered the phone at his home, saying his driveway and street were snowed in and he was unable to get into the office Wednesday (however, he reported spending a busy day with a snow shovel and expected to be back at work Thursday). Highs should get up into the 20s by the weekend, he said, while acknowledging that such conditions were not going to melt any snow.

The Midwest in general can expect at least another week of very cold temperatures, the marketer said. He expected cash prices to continue to rise Thursday on the basis of heavy heating load, but thinks gains will be blunted by Wednesday’s futures weakness.

The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts below-normal temperatures during the Dec. 14-18 workweek throughout the Northeast and extending through the Mid-Atlantic into most of North Carolina and through most of the eastern Midwest. In its six- to 10-day forecast posted Tuesday afternoon, NWS looks for above-normal readings everywhere south of an arc extending northwestward from western Mississippi through central Nebraska to all but the northwestern corner of Oregon.

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Cameron Horwitz attributed his expectation of a 49 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 4 to a sequential increase of more than 20% in heating degree days and a 10% rebound in industrial demand following the prior week’s holiday-related demand decline. Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research said he is looking for a build of 39 Bcf.

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