Tropical Storm Claudette appeared to be strengthening as it moved north, but its landfall location was still uncertain at press time Monday, with forecasts ranging from the Coastal Plains of Texas southwest of Houston to the eastern Gulf and Louisiana. The storm has caused many oil and natural gas companies to evacuate their platforms, shut down pipes and cease production (see Daily GPI, July 14).

According to the Minerals Management Service (MMS), over 1 Bcf/d of gas and 209,516 b/d of oil appears to be shut in. The gas shut in equates to 7.228% of the 14 Bcf/d production in the Gulf. The MMS’ statistics also revealed that 190 platforms and 37 rigs have been evacuated.

Prior to the MMS release, Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper said he estimated that production losses are currently in the 1.0-1.5 Bcf/d range. “That is still relatively small, but noteworthy,” he said. “It obviously will be much more significant the longer the disruption lasts.

Cooper added that the duration facilities must be exposed to high winds becomes of extreme importance. “As long as Claudette moves on shore tomorrow or early Wednesday, the effects should be minimal. However, if she stalls and remains in the Gulf, even as just a minimal hurricane, the effects could become more significant. Exposure to 75 mph winds for 12 hours is much, much different than exposure for 24-36-48 hours. While stalling is not predicted, it is certainly something to consider,” Cooper said.

In its afternoon update, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) extended its hurricane warning northward along the Texas coast to High Island. The hurricane warning now covers the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to High Island. The NHC also extended the warning eastward along the Louisiana coast to cover Intracoastal City. In addition, a hurricane watch remains in effect south of Baffin Bay to Brownsville, TX.

The High Island Offshore System (HIOS) issued a force majeure Monday for its 1.8 Bcf/d system, saying because of storm-related shut-ins, it would be unable to deliver all promised volumes.

As of 5 p.m. EDT on Monday, the NHC said Claudette was travelling north/northwest at 7 mph, about 255 miles east of Corpus Christi, TX and about 160 miles southeast of Galveston, TX. The NHC said it expected the storm, which has winds of 65 mph, to turn toward the west/northwest during the next 12 hours, with the center of Claudette expected to be near the Texas coast by Tuesday afternoon. The agency said Claudette could become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

According to the Miami, FL-based forecaster, several oil rigs in the Gulf have reported hurricane-force winds a few hundred feet above the surface Monday afternoon. “Storm surge flooding of three to five feet above normal tide levels…accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves…can be expected in the warning area near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast,” the NHC said. The agency noted that tropical storm force winds can extend outward up to 140 miles from the center of the storm.

As the storm’s next move still remains up in the air, Gulf producers continue to take precautions. ExxonMobil spokesman Bob Davis said the company shut in production on its Hoover Diana platform Monday morning. The platform is 160 miles south of Galveston, TX and 160 miles east of Corpus Christi. “We shut in production this morning of 40,000 b/d of liquids and 150 MMcf/d of natural gas at Hoover Diana.” Over the weekend, Davis said the company performed full evacuations of its Celtic Seas drill ship (100 employees) and the Enseco 98 drill ship (40 employees). The two drill ships are located near Hoover Diana.

Shell Exploration and Production said it “continues to monitor Claudette, approximately 300 mostly non-essential personnel remain evacuated from its facilities in the Central and Western portions of the Gulf. Additional evacuations from the Western portion of the Gulf will take place throughout today.” Currently, Shell has shut in production of approximately 50,000 bbls oil/day and 150 MMcf/d of gas due to Claudette.

ChevronTexaco said it has shut in 350 MMcf/d of gas and 105,000 b/d of oil, while Anadarko acknowledged that it has shut in 53,000 boe/d.

BP’s Larry Thomas said Claudette has had a “fairly minimum impact on us,” noting that most of the platforms that BP operates in the Gulf are in the Central and Eastern Gulf. “Our production has not been affected.” He added that the company has evacuated personnel off the few Western Gulf platforms and at minimum staff the rest of the way through the Gulf.

However, Thomas noted that “The storm is doing some strange things. It has not turned west as has been predicted so we are closely monitoring it at this point.”

Forecasting Claudette’s projected path more accurately than most so far, Weather 2000 said Monday that it still believes the storm will track a more northern route, as opposed to the curve westward that other forecasters such as the NHC are calling for.

While the NHC and other services had Claudette rolling due-West into the Rio Grande by this time, Weather 2000 said the storm has ignored “model projections, heading further north and slowly intensifying. Sticking to its guns, the New York City-based consulting firm said “coastal hubs such as Corpus Christie, Galveston/Houston, and even Louisiana (and locales in between) which were previously discounted as possibilities by NHC, et al., are potential eventual destinations for Claudette.” The group noted that northern storm bands of Claudette have already begun to lash the southern coast of Louisiana overnight, as the storm is presently less than 200 miles from the Louisiana Coast.

Noting that Claudette has shown resiliency, bouncing back from her traverse over the Northeast Yucatan and now packing sustained winds of 65-70 mph (just shy of Hurricane status), Weather 2000 said it remains “steadfast that Claudette will in fact obtain Hurricane Status prior to, or at time of landfall this week.”

Weather 2000 said it also continues to believe that if Claudette maintains a northwesterly course, then there is the potential for a large, Category 1-2 Hurricane on the doorstep of major West/Central Gulf Hubs Tuesday.

Noting that Claudette only has a moderate window of opportunity to intensify, Weather 2000 said that if she “moves West of about 95° West Longitude, the relative shallowness of the Continental Shelf will force her to upwell cooler deep water more easily and readily. The group added that this “cold water scarring” would act to either put a physical lid/cap on maximum strength (at say 100 mph), and/or act to rapidly de-intensify her just prior to land-strike.

“However, if Claudette remains East of 95° (she is presently at 92.7°), maximum strength potential could exceed 100 mph,” Weather 2000 said, although at this time, the group said it expects Claudette to max out in the 80-90 mph range.

Some forecasters, noting the very slow progress of the storm, worried that once ashore it could cause a flooding problem because the slow pace would drop more rain on affected areas.

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