The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that price volatility and intense competition over LNG volumes could heat up again this year despite months of falling prices, but the outlook is still “highly uncertain,” especially when it comes to Chinese demand.

Europe’s rush to fill winter storage and replace Russian pipeline flows last year with pricey liquefied natural gas cargoes was aided in part from China’s relative absence from the spot market. Analysts have been warning since last fall that the end of Covid restrictions in China could lead to it retaking its position as the world’s top importer, triggering more price spikes and dwindling European supply.

However, Chinese importers have continued to belay an uptick in spot purchases, clouding the IEA’s...