Opening up the electric market to retail trade in Canada and theU.S. “will reinforce the trend towards greater use of natural gasin power generation resulting from the development of combinedcycle gas turbine power plants,” according to George Given, authorof a new study by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI).

The study, “The Impact of Electricity Restructuring on theNatural Gas Industry,” projects that under a full retail wheelingscenario, gas for generation in Canada will rise from about 200 Bcfin 2000 to 559 Bcf in 2010 and to approximately 1327 Bcf in 2020.U.S. consumption for power generation is expected to reach about10.9 Tcf by 2020, or three times the current level.

The areas seeing the greatest generation demand growth arecentral Canada, New England and the East North Central U.S. Inother areas greater competition will drive generators to becomemore efficient and decrease the use of older gas-oil steam plantsthat are more costly to operate.

The CERI study predicts electricity prices will fall in bothcountries over much of the forecast period, although Canadianprices will begin to rise from 2015 to 2020.

Meanwhile, there will be no shortfall of gas supplies. Givensaid Canadian production is projected to reach 7.7 Tcf in 2010 and8.7 Tcf by 2020. “Cross border flows rise from 8.69 Bcf/d in 1998to 12.18 Bcf/d in 2010. Gross export volumes peak in 2015 at 13.4Bcf/d and start to gradually decline by 2020.”

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