Interruptions imposed by western wildfires last summer aside, natural gas production in Canada has often averaged around 18 Bcf/d or higher in 2023. That’s roughly 1 Bcf/d more than the 2022 standard, according to Canada Energy Regulator data, and it comes at a time when demand has largely held flat amid mild weather.

The result: Weak Canadian spot prices and abundant supplies flowing into the western United States, where buyers have sopped up the excess gas at a discount to fortify stockpiles for winter.

While NGI’s U.S. Spot Gas National Avg. has hovered above the $3.00/MMBtu level this week, Canadian cash prices are lower.

NOVA/AECO C, for example, averaged C$2.445 on Wednesday, while Westcoast Station 2 averaged C$2.255. The Canadian dollar is worth roughly 73 cents...