One of the uncertainties plaguing state energy planners, the retirement of aging electric generation plants, is the subject of a new study by the California Energy Commission (CEC) that is slated to be completed this summer in time for inclusion in the state’s 2004 updated integrated energy resource plan due to the state legislature this fall. A workshop was held in Sacramento Wednesday to set some of the parameters for the study of what is estimated to be between 5,000 and 10,000 MW that could retire by 2009.

Long talked about, the study will focus on natural gas-fired plants of 10 MW or larger, built prior to 1980. Peaking plants and baseload facilities slated to retire before 2005 will not be included. According to the CEC, the initial scope of the investigation is supposed to give state and utility planners a better grasp of how much capacity now in place will be out of service by the end of 2008.

The implications of the retirements to the mix of supply available to the state, along with various reliability, natural gas and environmental issues associated with the plant retirements will be looked at by the energy commission. The California Public Utilities Commission, with which the CEC and power authority jointly published a state “energy action plan” last year, plans to have detailed energy resource plans in place by 2009 and have each of the major private sector utilities assure they have adequate resources to meet future demand in the long term.

As California tries to get a handle on what is a prudent reserve margin on its electrical grid for the long-term future, the state’s aging power plants have been more of an issue. Generally, the state is considered to have an “old” fleet of plants, with 40% of the current facilities built in the 1950s and 60s.

In last year’s first-ever state integrated energy report, the issue of retiring plants was raised, but the estimates of how many megawatts were at stake in the near-term varied widely — from the CEC’s projection of 4,630 MW to the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO) estimate of 7,232 MW. Merchant generators have indicated the figure could be much higher, approaching 10,000 MW, the energy commission said in its workshop briefing materials.

In addition, the capacity contributions toward the state’s reserve margins needs to be assessed, the energy commission document stated, noting that “some of these aging power plants provide important local reliability services.”

Wednesday’s opening session was the first of what the energy commission said will be a series of stakeholder workshops. The CEC staff concentrated on four areas: (1) the major issues associated with the aging plants; (2) criteria used to select plants that need more detailed examination; (3) the information and analytical tools needed to complete the study; and (4) methods for analyzing the longer term effect of continuing to rely on an aging power plant fleet.

CEC’s 2004 integrated energy plan update committee is seeking initial comments by Monday (March 29).

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