Temporary compression upgrades on parts of the SouthernCalifornia Gas Co. pipeline infrastructure along with using cushiongas from its idle Montebello underground storage field may be thelast and best hope of avoiding a meltdown in California’s naturalgas transmission pipeline infrastructure this summer under theweight of heavy demand from electric generators, a state energyexpert told California legislators Wednesday.

“If everything works right, under a base case scenario we couldjust barely sneak by,” said Bill Wood, natural gas forecastingdirector at the California Energy Commission, who noted that hisdire predictions for the summer did not factor in the possibilityof the state having an extra 10 to 12 Bcf of gas available fromSoCalGas’ Montebello storage facility, which has been out ofservice, awaiting a now-deferred sale.

“That’s gas that is already in the (SoCal) system, you don’thave to get it through the bottlenecks to get it there,” Wood said.”Montebello gives them an edge, and the next best edge is to addcompression — at least at one of the key receipt points. What wehave here is a lot of ‘depends’, but it looks like SoCalGas isconsidering putting in some kind of temporary compression units.They have been bouncing around a number of options for this summer,but they need to start consciously moving in the direction of ashort-term or a long-term fix.”

Wood told a special state Assembly natural gas oversightcommittee that four uncertain factors could put unprecedentedpressure on the state’s natural gas infrastructure this summer,especially in the southern half of the state: (1) delay in gettingback online a 1,000 MW unit at the San Onofre Nuclear Plant thatwas taken out by a fire recently; (2) how much of the currentlyidle qualifying facility (QF) generators are back in service; (3)hydroelectric power conditions, now looking very bleak, from thePacific Northwest and (4) new gas-fired generation in and outsidethe state.

“San Onofre represents a significant amount of gas demand, if itstays down (beyond the current June 1 target for restarting it) andif it is replaced entirely by gas,” Wood said. “Nevertheless, aportion would have to be replaced by gas. If it doesn’t come upuntil October, that would put more strain on the generationcapacity inside the Los Angeles Basin.”

Ultimately, weather will play a big factor, too, said Wood,concluding that “the SoCal system is very tight regarding itsability receive gas and also get gas into storage for summergeneration requirements and next winter’s requirements.”

Wood thinks a combination of dipping into Montebello storage gasand skid-mounted added compression on at least one of three or fourkey receiving points (Topock, Needles, Blythe or Wheeler Ridge) insouthern California could help avoid curtailments to gas-firedgeneration plants in the height of summer peak-demand power loads.But longer term, the natural gas infrastructure has to be beefedup, and SoCalGas this week revealed its plans to enhance its systemby 175 MMcf/d, mostly through permanent compression additions atthe key receiving points (see Daily GPI, March 29).

The California Public Utilities Commission has scheduled anApril 17 workshop in San Francisco to begin collecting data on whatneeds to be done overall to the state’s pipeline network. One ofWood’s colleagues from the state energy commission will make aproposal at that session, he said.

With nine new generating plants under construction or approved— all natural gas-fired — the state energy commission has beensaying for the past year that the state has to upgrade its naturalgas infrastructure. Several merchant generators, such as DukeEnergy, have repeated this at various forums with state and federalenergy officials.

The temporary solutions for this summer will require “everythingfalling in line in two to three months,” said Wood, citing theuncertainty of the availability of mobile compression units and theability to streamline environmental and safety permitting in thelocal areas where the facilities were brought online.

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