Brent to Fall to $78 Next Year as Global Inventories Rise, EIA Says

Amid increasing global inventories, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $83/bbl in 2023, an 18% decline from 2022 levels, before falling further in 2024, according to updated projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Next year may see prices for the global crude benchmark fall to $78, with rising global inventories expected to put downward pressure on prices, the agency said in the January edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published Tuesday.

In terms of supply, EIA said it expects global production of liquid fuels to average 102.8 million b/d in 2024, an increase over supply of 100.0 million b/d in 2022. This projected supply increase reflects “large growth in non-OPEC production,” researchers said. Still, “uncertainty...