Based on the season’s first burst of truly robust heading load in many areas, which is expected to be short-lived, most points were able to rally Monday. The restoration of industrial demand following a weekend also contributed to the overall firmness, which occurred despite Friday’s 18-cent drop by October futures.

A majority of the market was flat to up a little more than 55 cents, with most of the largest gains occurring in Southern California, the Northeast and desert Southwest delivery points. The losses, which ranged from a couple of pennies to about 20 cents, tended to be concentrated and largest in the Texas portion of the Gulf Coast.

Tuesday’s cash market will continue to have prior-trading day futures guidance after the October contract fell another 11.8 cents Monday (see related story).

The market may have plenty of cold weather-based demand for now, but it’s likely to disappear by the weekend. The National Weather Service’s six- to 10-day forecast for the Nov. 1-5 period call for above-normal temperatures in nearly all of the U.S. The only exceptions are below-normal readings in the Florida peninsula and normal conditions in the Florida Panhandle along with coastal sections of Georgia and the Carolinas.

Prices were up at most western points despite a few excess supply situations and not especially frigid weather in most of the region. PG&E issued a systemwide high-inventory OFO for Tuesday (see Transportation Notes). Malin and the PG&E citygate fell a little less than a nickel and a little more than a dime, respectively.

El Paso said high linepack was responsible for it setting the probability of declaring a Strained Operating Condition or Critical Operating Condition to high. And Kern River reported high linepack Monday in the three farthest downstream of its four segments. Despite those issues, both El Paso-Permian and Kern recorded gains. said a coastal storm that was developing Monday east of the Delmarva Peninsula would intensify rapidly Tuesday as it moves toward New England. West of the storm track “cold air will rush in on strong northerly winds, causing any rain to change over to a heavy, wet snow, especially from northeastern Pennsylvania and into parts of upstate New York.” One of the company’s meteorologists said blizzard conditions were possible in the Green and White mountains.

One to three inches of snow are likely to the leeward side of lakes Erie and Ontario, continued. Cold air flowing down the spine of the Appalachians will bring snow showers as far south Tuesday as the mountains of North Carolina, it added.

Some areas of the South will be flirting with freezing lows Tuesday, but it will be milder toward the western end in Louisiana and Texas, where lows will only get to the 40s in most cases.

A utility buyer in the South said his company had injected into storage faster than expected because of a mostly mild October, so he was glad that it was getting this brief cold spell to allow the utility to work off some of its storage account without having to go into the spot market. That will leave the utility some injection room left in early November, when relatively moderate weather will return and cut back its heating load.

With Henry Hub cash about 15 cents above prompt-month futures, the buyer said his company has the opportunity to sell cash gas now and get it back in November by locking in the futures contract.

“It’s definitely cold out there now,” said a marketer in the Upper Midwest, but area highs should be pushing 60 by Thursday. It will get a bit colder into the weekend, but then temperatures should start rebounding again, she said.

Citing a very chilly experience Saturday at her grandson’s soccer game, the marketer said at least the soccer season is ending and the basketball season, which is played indoors, is starting.

The marketer said an agricultural grain drying client of her company had bought two baseload contracts for October, but business during the month has been slower than expected, so he has more gas on his hands than he can use. “We’re trying to help,” but the client is going to have to pay a utility penalty and has his storage account overfilled to a small extent, she added.

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