With forecasts hinting at a turn toward milder conditions for the Lower 48 in late November, natural gas futures continued to erode in early trading Wednesday. The December Nymex contract was down 19.4 cents to $4.785/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET.

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Recent model runs as of early Wednesday advertised warmer trends and lower overall weather-driven demand, according to Bespoke Weather Services. Perhaps more important, models hinted at a pattern change late this month that gave the forecast an overall “bearish tilt,” the firm said.

“We are again in a situation,” Bespoke said, where overall gas-weighted degree day projections “do not tell the story when it comes to the flavor of the forecast, as model projections heading into late month are quickly trending toward a Pacific...