Natural Gas Futures Slip as Analysts Eye Potential for Late-April Cold; Permian Cash Hits New Lows

  • Natural gas futures slip, but signs of returning cold limit losses
  • Late-season demand could temporarily stall above-average injections, but production growth still expected to lead to surplus before summer
  • Analysts monitoring global gas prices as further sustained weakening could dampen U.S. LNG exports this summer
  • Cash mostly shifts lower; Permian sinks to fresh lows
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Cold Blast, Drop in Production Boost Natural Gas Futures, Cash

  • Late-season cold shot boosts futures prices as traders note steep drop in production
  • Analysts see price bump as temporary with milder weather set to arrive later this week
  • Storage deficits expected to tighten significantly during the next few weeks
  • Cash prices rise amid a slew of pipeline maintenance events across the country
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Gains at Waha, But Region Still in the Red; Mild Forecast Pressures Natural Gas Futures Lower

  • May Nymex futures down 5.0 cents to $2.662; June down 4.8 cents to $2.713
  • “Lower prices today were likely aided by the overnight weather data trending milder, especially the European model”: NatGasWeather
  • Permian natural gas prices no joke; Waha finishes week trading negative 53.0 cents
  • “Pricing relief is unlikely to come until Kinder Morgan’s 2 Bcf/d Gulf Coast Express pipeline enters service in late 2019”: Jefferies
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Waha Freefall Continues Making Natural Gas History; No Storage Surprises as Futures Steady

  • May Nymex futures down 0.7 cents to $2.712; June down 1.0 cents to $2.761
  • EIA’s reported 36 Bcf withdrawal “quite loose compared to last week and the five-year average,” says Bespoke
  • “Production this week is averaging more than 1.2 Bcf/d above the month-to-date average,” says Genscape’s Margolin
  • Waha traders pay $1.945/MMBtu to offload gas as crude economics flip Permian market on its head
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Steep Declines at Waha; Natural Gas Futures Face Bearish Headwinds From Weather, LNG

  • April Nymex futures expire at $2.713, down 2.7 cents; May down 3.2 cents to $2.719
  • “The risk of weak global LNG pricing eroding U.S. feed gas demand is beginning to garner more attention,” says TPH
  • “Models show an unseasonably comfortable U.S. pattern on track to arrive April 4-11”: NatGasWeather
  • SoCalGas sees delays in returning two critical import lines to service: Genscape’s Bernardi
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 36 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending March 22
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Natural Gas Futures Slip Ahead of Potentially Mild April; Waha Stays Negative

  • April Nymex futures down 1.5 cents to $2.740; May off 2.3 cents to $2.751
  • “We expect once this bearish pattern sets up it will likely last into mid-April”: NatGasWeather
  • Lower 48 dry gas production averaging 87.8 Bcf/d since Saturday, ~2.4 Bcf/d above MTD low: Genscape
  • West Texas prices gain after Monday’s historic lows, but negative trades abound
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Unprecedented Lows in West Texas; Range-Bound Natural Gas Futures Finish Near Even

  • April Nymex futures settle at $2.755, up 0.2 cents; May up 0.7 cents to $2.774
  • “Natural gas pricing is positioned to open the week on shaky footing as flow data shows LNG feed gas down about 1.5 Bcf/d, while production is up about 1.0 Bcf/d”: TPH
  • Region-wide negative average spot prices in West Texas
  • “I’ve never seen wholesale price negativity like this before,” says NGI’s Rau
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