Mid-November Warming Sends NatGas Futures Falling; Sweeping Cold Snaps Drive Up Spot Gas

  • November natural gas moves lower after latest weather data shows milder trends through mid-November
  • Demand should still be enough to not significantly improve persistent storage deficits
  • Back-to-back cold fronts continue to drive up spot gas prices in Midwest, Northeast
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 58 Bcf storage build, but reclassification pushes implied flow to +63 Bcf
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Projected Break in Cold, Record Production Drive Dramatic Natural Gas Sell-off; Mexico Braces for Willa

  • Natural gas futures tumble as volatile weather outlooks show milder temperatures for early November
  • Market observers not clear whether breakdown of cold is lasting trend or temporary break in cold snaps
  • Production reportedly reached 84.43 Bcf/d on Saturday, a new high
  • Spot gas strong in eastern United States on cold front; Mexico bracing for Hurricane Willa
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November NatGas Futures Rebound on Conflicting Weather Models; Approaching Front Drives Spot Gas

  • Volatile output in two most commonly used weather models leads to 5-cent gain for November natural gas prices
  • Market expected to look for more consistency next week on whether cold will linger through the end of October/early November
  • Balances remain loose enough to send prices lower at first signs of warmer risks
  • Spot gas prices jump in key demand regions as significantly colder weather set to send temperatures plunging
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Colder-Trending November Lifts Natural Gas Futures; Stalled Front Fuels Spot Gas

  • Natural gas futures stage late-session rally following latest weather data showing colder start to November
  • Colder weather expected to widen natural gas storage deficits even more before winter
  • Stalled cold front, Canadian import cuts drive up spot gas prices
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 81 Bcf storage injection for the week ending Oct. 12
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Mild Breaks in Coming Cold Snaps Enough to Stall Natural Gas Rally; Low Temps Drive Spot Gas

  • Winter natural gas prices stall as traders wait for confirmation of milder breaks between October cold snaps
  • November/December outlooks are more bearish, but low storage could leave market vulnerable in colder-than-normal winter
  • $3 gas likely to remain in place until deficits start to erode
  • Spot gas prices strengthen again, with Permian Basin pricing seeing largest gains
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Lingering Cold, Worsening Storage Picture Drive Up Natural Gas Winter Prices

  • Natural gas winter contract boosted by cold snap that is expected to continue through remainder of October: November rises 8 cents
  • Chillier weather pattern expected to push storage deficits to more than 650 Bcf and possibly 700 Bcf before start of winter
  • Weather outlooks show warmer weather returning for November/December before lasting winter cold arrives
  • Spot gas prices strengthen as cold air descends on Rockies, Plains and heads east
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Soft Demand, Increased Supply Post-Michael Put November NatGas in Red; Rockies Spot Gas Rises

  • Early-week rally erased as November natural gas prices slides another 6 cents
  • Post-Michael power outages, recovering production at heart of Friday’s declines
  • Bullish weather sentiment remains as mostly colder-than-normal temperatures on tap for remainder of October
  • Rockies spot gas prices increase as Canadian air blankets the region
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Bears Look to Regain Control as November Natural Gas Slips; Spot Gas Slides on Increased Supply

  • Mild temperatures on tap for late October help to send November futures down 6 cents
  • Improving supply picture, on-target storage injection add further pressure to already soft market
  • Future market direction will be highly correlated to whether bullish risks begin showing up again in weather forecasts; November likely to be mild
  • Spot gas prices sink as production begins to return following Michael, Enbridge brings unharmed line back to service
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