Henry Hub Tops $4/MMBtu as Natural Gas Markets React to Early Winter Cold, Lean Storage

  • December Nymex futures surge 31.3 cents to $4.101, January up 34.7 cents to $4.147
  • “This is a market gripped by fear of low storage levels,” says Bespoke
  • Cold blast puts market on track for first triple-digit November withdrawal since 2014: Energy Aspects
  • West Texas cash prices remain strong on dip in production following NGL pipe incident
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Market Not Phased by Plump EIA Build as Natural Gas Futures Down Slightly

  • December Nymex futures down 1.2 cents to $3.543; January settles at $3.553, down 1.6 cents
  • “For the moment, I think I’m more likely to be a bull than a bear,” says Powerhouse’s Levine
  • Midday data “quite cold” through Nov. 17-18, more seasonal/milder pattern Nov. 19-22: NatGasWeather
  • SoCal Citygate cash hits $6 amid reports of import restrictions
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Mixed Forecasts Seen as Natural Gas Front Month Futures Unchanged

  • December Nymex futures unchanged at $3.555, January down 1.4 cents to $3.569
  • All weather models trend colder for Nov. 17-22 except for European: NatGasWeather
  • “This year’s market has been banking on a moderate winter, but that scenario has become less likely,” says Morningstar’s Grunwald
  • Freeze-offs in Permian seen unlikely during upcoming cold, says Genscape
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 65 Bcf storage injection for the week ending Nov. 2
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Pausing for Breather After Big Rally, Natural Gas Futures Action Mixed

  • December down 1.2 cents to $3.555 following Monday’s big rally; January up 0.8 cents to $3.583
  • “Confidence is increasing that after these two cold shots the pattern moderates,” says Bespoke
  • Forecast cold removes “margin of safety” given lean stockpiles, says EBW’s Weissman
  • NGPL maintenance limiting flows into Chicago market: Genscape
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Mexican Pipe Delays, New LNG Demand Could Lead to Erratic Price Swings in U.S. South Central This Winter

The recently announced delay of two Mexican natural gas pipelines will postpone much needed relief in the constrained Permian Basin this winter, likely leading to increased flaring, possible production shut-ins and price volatility. Meanwhile, the start-up of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains could tighten supply and lead to higher prices if winter conditions are worse than currently forecast, analysts said. Read More

Natural Gas Futures, Spot Surge on Intensifying Medium-Range Cold; West Texas Falls

  • December rallies 28.3 cents to $3.567 after gapping up over weekend; January up 26.5 cents to $3.575
  • “A vicious day for those that held short over the weekend,” says NatGasWeather
  • “The margin of safety in a cold weather scenario is wearing thin,” says EBW’s Weissman
  • West Texas spot prices down as Northern Natural continues reporting performance issues at Permian delivery points
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Natural Gas Futures Rally on Colder Afternoon Guidance; West Texas Cash Falls

  • December Nymex up 4.7 cents to $3.284; January up 3.5 cents to $3.310
  • “Confidence is low as run-to-run changes in all weather models remain incredibly large,” Bespoke says
  • E&P guidance suggests possibly slowing Appalachian supply growth: Jefferies
  • West Texas spot prices pressured as Northern Natural Permian delivery points underperform
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