Natural Gas Futures Ease on Neutral EIA Data, Uninspiring Forecast

  • June Nymex futures drop 1.5 cents to $2.595; July down 1.5 cents to $2.631
  • EIA’s reported 85 Bcf build for week ended May 3 viewed as neutral
  • “Despite impressive growth across the board, production has still outpaced the collective growth in demand/exports so far,” says Genscape’s Fell
  • Low W.TX prices impacting Permian Basin production, says Genscape’s Bernardi
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Natural Gas Futures Rally as Production Seen Dropping

  • June Nymex futures rally 7.3 cents to $2.610; July up 7.3 cents to $2.646
  • “This price level, in our view, makes sense given how early we are in the season, with so many factors that can change along the way,” says Bespoke
  • Warmer trends seen in the southern U.S. for 11-15 day outlook: Radiant Solutions
  • Rockies maintenance impacts nearly 1 Bcf/d of production: Genscape
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 85 Bcf storage injection for week ending May 3
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Futures Inch Higher as Analysts Cite Dip in Natural Gas Production Data

  • June Nymex futures up 1.3 cents to $2.537; July up 1.3 cents to $2.573
  • “The strength in the back of the curve was able to overpower the weakness in cash prices and keep the whole curve ‘green’ for the day,” says Bespoke
  • “Without the emergence of more sustained hot weather in May, the start of the injection season is far from constructive”: Energy Aspects
  • “There’s a window here where” bears could push prices “lower without having more of the demand stimulus to help push prices higher,” says INTL FCStone’s Saal
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Market Not Impressed by May Forecast as Natural Gas Futures Drop

  • June Nymex futures fall 4.3 cents to $2.524; July down 4.0 cents to $2.560
  • “It is unlikely this market will see a dramatic move in either direction until the summer demand is better defined,” says Drillinginfo
  • Deliveries to Cameron LNG reached 268 MMcf/d on Sunday, highest to date, says Genscape
  • Waha discounted amid more NGPL maintenance
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Natural Gas Futures Pull Back as Bearish EIA Data Pressures Prices

  • June Nymex futures down 3.1 cents to $2.589; July off 3.4 cents to $2.624
  • “Weaker year/year demand (largely weather-driven) and rising production have pushed the last five weeks of injections higher than average”: Jefferies
  • NGPL force majeure in southeast New Mexico accompanies big spot price moves in Southwest
  • California forwards rise on low storage levels entering summer, says Genscape’s Bernardi
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Potential Large EIA Build Doesn’t Phase Natural Gas Bulls as Futures Rally

  • June Nymex futures rally 4.5 cents to $2.620; July up 4.1 cents to $2.658
  • “Typically you’re buying sometime in May, you’re holding it into June,” Powerhouse’s Levin says
  • “Bearish forces are looming” with run of large EIA builds ahead, says EBW’s Weissman
  • Waha spot prices gain despite additional pipeline restrictions
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 123 Bcf storage injection for week ending April 26
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Natural Gas Futures Slip Despite Small Changes to Weather Data; Cash Firms

  • June natural gas prices slip amid continued minor changes to weather data
  • Overall bearish weather pattern seen significantly improving storage deficits before hotter weather arrives
  • Analysts conflicted over near-term price direction
  • Pipeline maintenance, including on Sierrita Pipeline, grips cash markets as heat builds in southern United States
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Near-term Demand Boosts Natural Gas June Futures, Cash

  • June natural gas posts modest gain amid strong near-term demand
  • Long-range weather outlooks show moderating temperatures by mid-May
  • Production back above 87 Bcf/d, seen growing more once maintenance season winds down
  • Cash prices strengthen as series of late-season weather systems drive up demand in northern states
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