Mercados

Potential for Arctic Air Over East Teases Natural Gas Futures as Cash Strengthens on Near-Term Cold

  • February Nymex futures up 2.3 cents to $2.967; March up 1.2 cents to $2.835
  • “The market is clearly jumpy,” reacting to shifts in weather models, says Bespoke
  • “Season-to-date, this winter has been a tale of two halves,” says TPH
  • SoCal Border Avg., SoCal Citygate spot prices down as Southern California Gas sees demand easing
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Colder Forecast Trends Not Convincing as Natural Gas Futures Drop

  • February Nymex down 10.0 cents to $2.944; March down 5.8 cents to $2.847
  • Cold Jan. 10-15 would “look more impressive if it wasn’t for strong high pressure quickly returning Jan. 16-20”: NatGasWeather
  • Feedgas demand for U.S. LNG exports up ~2 Bcf/d (80%)  in 4Q2018, says RBN’s Nasta
  • Weak spot prices continue as U.S. Lower 48 sees comfortable temperatures
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Potential January Cold Helps Natural Gas Futures Shake Off Bearish EIA Storage Report

  • February Nymex futures up 9.9 cents to settle at $3.044; March up 9.3 cents to $2.905
  • “Weather model guidance has finally begun to pick up on the colder weather risks we expected to develop in the middle third of January,” says Bespoke
  • EIA’s reported 20 Bcf weekly withdrawal loose even compared to previous holiday weeks: Genscape’s Fell
  • “Continued mild weather this winter could bring forward the risk of storage congestion to summer 2019,” says BofA Merrill Lynch
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Natural Gas Futures, Spot Prices Under Pressure as Mild Temps Seen Through Mid-January

  • February Nymex down 1.3 cents to $2.945; March off 1.7 cents to $2.812
  • “No change bigger picture as a rather bearish pattern is expected into mid-January, rapidly improving deficits”: NatGasWeather
  • Near-term natural gas demand outlook “keeps turning bearish,” according to Genscape
  • BREAKING: EIA reports 20 Bcf withdrawal from U.S. gas stocks for week ended Dec. 28, vs. surveys for ~44-47 Bcf pull
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Bearish January Forecasts Sink Natural Gas Below $3 to Start 2019

  • February Nymex futures settle at $2.958, up 1.8 cents; March down 2.2 cents to $2.829
  • More cold needed in long-range to hold support at $2.92: Bespoke
  • “Risks of severe price spikes have been largely eliminated,” says EBW’s Weissman
  • NatGas to see more volatility in 2019 as shifts in electric generation mean heightened weather sensitivity, says RBN’s Braziel
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NGI’s Top Five Mexico Natural Gas Trends in 2018

2018 was a momentous year for Mexico’s energy sector, and could very well define hydrocarbon production and distribution in the country for the foreseeable future. Although there is much to pick from, NGI’s Mexico GPI has narrowed down the major Mexican natural gas trends for 2018 to five: Read More

January Natural Gas Expires Sharply Higher Despite Lack of Fundamental Support; Spot Gas Rises in Texas

  • Expiring Nymex January natural gas futures contract shuns weather, shoots nearly 10 cents higher as it rolls off board
  • Lack of supportive weather could leave February contract struggling to maintain gains
  • Spot gas prices in Texas rise even as exports to Mexico ease during holiday season
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 48 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 21
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January Natural Gas Rises in Erratic Post-Christmas Session; Spot Gas Slides

  • January natural gas continues wild intraday swings before settling more than nickel higher
  • Cold risks expected to gradually increase through January before peaking in February
  • Energy Information Administration set to release storage report on Friday due to Christmas holiday; deficits expected to improve next couple of weeks
  • West spot gas prices surge; most other markets continue to drop in light holiday week
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