Natural Gas Futures Retreat as Production Overshadows Lean Stockpiles; Cash Continues Slide

  • April Nymex futures down 4.3 cents to $2.841; May down 3.4 cents to $2.850
  • “If we had seen storage tight like this in previous years, before we had all this shale, it would have been a lot more scary,” says Powerhouse’s Levin
  • “At this point, the main issues for natural gas are how quickly and how far cash market prices will fall”: EBW’s Weissman
  • Warm-up expected by weekend as spot prices sink; Henry Hub cash down 16.5 cents to $2.935
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 149 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending March 1
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Natural Gas Futures Gain as Market Focuses on Declining Stockpiles; Spot Prices Fall

  • April Nymex futures up 2.7 cents to $2.884; May also up 2.7 cents to $2.884
  • Futures “remained well-supported, as the market shifted focus to the low stock situation,” says Bespoke
  • “On a total withdrawal basis, March 2019 should oustrip the polar vortex March 2014”: Energy Aspects
  • Market still 1-2 Bcf/d oversupplied, “but with continued strong weather demand the outlook could be a lot less dire,” says TPH
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Natural Gas Futures Trade Near Even as Cold Drives Spot Price Gains

  • April Nymex futures down 0.2 cents to $2.857; May down 0.6 cents to $2.857
  • A “mix of cold shots and milder breaks” expected March 9-15 in “relatively neutral pattern”: NatGasWeather
  • Year/year storage could reach 500 Bcf surplus by end of injection season absent lower prices, says EBW’s Weissman
  • Near-term cold sends Texas spot prices higher
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Late Winter Cold Blast Sparks Record Natural Gas Spot Price; Modest Gains for Futures

  • April Nymex futures settle at $2.859, up 4.7 cents; May adds 4.0 cents to $2.863
  • Northwest Sumas spot prices hit $200 mark as cold blast compounds volatility
  • Bulk of data “favors a warm ridge building across the southern and eastern U.S. for near-normal demand” March 10-15: NatGasWeather
  • End-of-season stocks below 1.15 Tcf a “likely path, with a continued cold pattern through March potentially causing a sub 1.1 Tcf start,” says Mobius
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EIA Storage Data Fails to Move Natural Gas Futures Needle Much; Spot Gas Mixed

  • April natural gas climbs modestly as much of incoming cold already priced into market
  • EIA reports 166 Bcf draw that falls on low end of estimates, but widens deficits
  • Coming cold seen extending deficits to potentially more than 600 Bcf by end-March
  • Spot gas prices mixed as chilly, wet weather systems sweep across West and into country’s midsection
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Mexico Central Bank Lowers 2019, 2020 Growth Forecasts

Mexico’s central bank has downwardly revised its 2019 and 2020 economic growth forecasts for the country, citing both external factors and uncertainty over the government’s policies at home, as well as concern over the outlook for national oil company Petróleos Mexicanos. Read More

New Pemex Team Faces Same Old Issues

The new management team at Mexico’s state-run Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), in its first conference call with investors on Wednesday, discussed the same issues its predecessors frequently faced: huge financial losses, an even larger debt and upstream results that were somewhat less than scintillating. Read More