A target of May 1 has been set to complete a review, and a pollsuggests the majority is receptive to change, but gas hunters stillface an uphill effort to remove a moratorium from a highly-ratedexploration target offshore of Canada’s West Coast.

The British Columbia government set the date for a report by aprovincial consultation panel on a review of B.C.’s ban againstdrilling in the Queen Charlotte Islands region. At the same time,industry got some encouragement from a poll commissioned by theB.C. Business Summit, an alliance of 52 business organizations andprofessional associations with membership rosters representing 95%of private sector employment in the province.

A preliminary review has already been conducted by a consultant,to establish procedures for reconsidering the moratorium thatensure all sides are taken into account. It is well accepted thatany change is bound to arouse potent political and legal oppositionfrom native and environmental groups that inspired the moratoriumin the first place. The plan has been to craft the review so wellthat any decisions can withstand procedural challenges.

The poll by Ipsos Reid, a widely-used specialty house in Canada,found that 77% of British Columbians agree with the statement,”Unless we make major change to how we do things in B.C. our bestdays will be behind us.” Four-fifths believe B.C. could be thestrongest economy in Canada based on its natural resources. Thepoll follows forecasts by Canadian bank economists that oil andgas-driven Alberta, despite a smaller population and much lessattractive climate, will soon overtake B.C. as the third mostproductive of Canada’s 10 provinces after Ontario and Quebec. Thefindings also follow long slumps in B.C.’s mainstays of forestproducts, mining and real estate, with gas development in thenortheastern corner of the province standing out as the lone brightgrowth spot.

The conflicting signal, indicating that it will still be astruggle to lift the moratorium, came from B.C.’s left-leaning NewDemocratic Party government. In the provincial capital of Victoria,Premier Ujjal Dosanjh issued a statement that “our oil and gasmoratorium will not be revisited until science is able to addressthe dangers from earthquakes and potential spills to safeguard ourcoastal waters.” But Dosanjh may not be in a position to make thatstick too much longer.He has yet to prove he has staying power inoffice. He became premier by winning the NDP leadership after hispredecessor, Glen Clark, was forced to resign over a scandalinvolving the granting of a gambling licence to an associate.Charges have been laid. Dosanjh did not call an election and willbe forced by Canadian law to hold one within a year or two.

Drilling along B.C.’s coastline dates back to 1913. Themoratorium was imposed in 1959 as a result of opposition in thefishing and environmental communities. The ban was lifted in 1966but reinstated in 1972 as a result of renewed concerns stoked bytanker traffic between Alaska and the lower 48 United States. A1986 review panel recommended ending the moratorium, but the 1989Exxon Valdez spill intervened and the ban was extendedindefinitely.

The early exploration, plus 14 wells done during the 1966-72open season, generated results that continue to tantalize theCanadian industry. In a 1995 report, the Geological Survey ofCanada estimated the region has 20 Tcf of gas and 2.7 billionbarrels of oil. Subsequent estimates, using revised calculatingmethods, have as much as doubled the projected resource endowment.Shell Canada, Chevron Canada, Petro-Canada and ExxonMobil Canadacontinue to hold about three million acres of long-term drillingleases in the area. The companies say they continue to beinterested in exploration if they are given a chance, althoughadding there will be no activity until there is a clear indicationthat the area will be opened up. In 1997, they made a striking showof good faith by donating the 320,000 most scenic and sensitiveacres of their prospects to the Gwaii Haanas National MarineConservation Area, a “transition zone” between deep waters and anisland national park.

Gordon Jaremko, Calgary

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