Interstate pipelines will want to be on the look-out for theresults of a model simulation of the New England pipelineinfrastructure that will analyze its potential to supply the”enormous” increase in the demand for natural gas by powergenerators in the region.

Boston-based Levitan & Associates Inc. has been commissionedby the New England Independent System Operator (ISO) to develop atechnical model of the region’s gas deliverability system that willserve as an “early warning sign of the [pipeline capacity] hotspotsacross the region,” providing generators with a roadmap of where toand where not to build new gas-fired facilities, said LevitanPresident Richard Levitan.

In addition, Levitan said the analysis will recommend “whattypes of initiatives make sense” for the pipelines to improve theirdeliverability to generators – expansions, looping, compressorchanges or “regulatory problem-solving that will improve theliquidity of the region.”

Levitan, a management consulting firm for the energy industry,will design the model to focus on five pipelines serving NewEngland: Portland Natural Gas Transmission System, Maritimes &Northeast, Algonquin Gas Transmission, Tennessee Pipeline andIroquois Gas Transmission. It also will review the region’s storageand liquefied natural gas availability.

The New England ISO is concerned “there’s not enough pipelinecapacity to meet the enormous new demand of the generationfacilities that are being added across the region,” Levitan noted.”Also, it’s concerned about the liquidity of the pipelines to meetsome of the peak requirements, not just in the winter but duringthe summer when sometimes the pipelines are conducting their ownmaintenance.”

Even if the 1 Bcf/d Independence Pipeline project, whichrecently was approved by FERC, is built to the Northeast, Levitansaid it would make only a dent in the gas needs of the region’sgenerators. Although 1 Bcf is an “enormous increase in pipelineinfrastructure, it only corresponds to something in the vicinity of5,000 MW of generation. More pipeline capacity has to berationalized [added or reallocated] to meet the requirements of allthe new entrants in the market.”

He said Levitan will be working to design the model “certainlythrough the beginning of next year.” He indicated the results maybe forwarded to FERC, which has been reticent about approvingNortheast pipeline projects for fear of overbuilding to the region.”I hope the pipelines will work with us in a productive fashion”since the results of the effort will be as much a benefit to thepipelines as they will be to the New England ISO and the region’spower generators, Levitan said.

Susan Parker

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