Don’t put your duct tape and plywood away just yet. The lull inthe Atlantic hurricane season finally broke last week with TropicalStorm Bret and Tropical Depression Four throwing a one-two punch tothe gas market and triggering a more than 30-cent jump in NymexHenry Hub futures prices, which broke $3 early on Friday.Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and renowned Colorado State University forecaster Dr.William M. Gray both recently reiterated their predictions that thehurricane season will be a whopper despite the early lull.

On Friday morning the National Hurricane Center issued ahurricane watch and a tropical storm warning for the Mexican Coastfrom La Pesca southward to Veracruz and warned residents along theTexas Coast to monitor the progress of Bret, which was in the Bayof Campeche. At 10 a.m. CDT the storm was near latitude 20.9 northlongitude 94.6 west or about 230 miles east southeast of Tampico,Mexico, and moving 7 mph to the northwest and slowing. Maximumsustained winds were 65 mph and strengthening.

Whenever a major storm develops in the Gulf, producers are quickto react and late last week they were monitoring the situationclosely. As of Friday morning, however, production platformoperations were normal because of the less than 20% chance thestorm would even reach as far north as Brownsville, TX, by Monday.

Meanwhile Tropical Depression Four with 35 mph winds was about90 miles south southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the Atlanticand moving west 9 mph with little change in strength expected overthe next 24 hours.

The two storms came just a couple weeks after Dr. Gray said hewas sticking with his previous forecast of much above averagehurricane activity, including 14 named tropical storms (compared tothe average of 9.3 per year), nine hurricanes (compared to theaverage 5.8) and four intense hurricanes (compared to the averageof 2.2 per year). For the Gulf Coast region from Brownsville, TX,to Spring Hill, FL, Gray sees a 73% probability that a hurricanewill make landfall this year compared to the average probability ofonly 60%. There’s a 40% probability that an intense hurricane(category 3, 4 or 5) will make landfall on the Gulf Coast comparedto the average probability of 30%, he said.

“The observation of only one named storm (tropical storm Arlene)up to Aug. 6 is judged to have little or no relationship to whetherwe will have an overall active or inactive hurricane season,” Graysaid. “Many very active hurricane seasons have experienced littlehurricane activity until mid or late August.”

Gray’s conclusions closely matched those of NOAA scientists, whoalso released a forecast update earlier this month. NOAA’s ClimatePrediction Center (CPC) said it still expects three or more intenseAtlantic hurricanes this season, and warned residents living incommunities along the East and Gulf coasts to remain prepared.

“Last year we had fourteen named storms, and the first hurricane(Bonnie) didn’t develop until mid-August,” noted Gerald Bell, aresearch meteorologist with the CPC. “This year, many of the mostprominent atmospheric and oceanic factors that can generatetropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin arealready in place, and are expected to persist through the season.Just because we haven’t seen a hurricane yet this year, don’t getfooled into thinking that this will be a light season.”

He said hurricane producing conditions are expected to persistbecause of their strong link to existing patterns of tropicalrainfall and cooler-than-average tropical Pacific Oceantemperatures (La Nina), both of which are expected to continuethrough the remainder of the hurricane season.

Two additional factors – reduced wind shear over the CaribbeanSea and a northward extension of deep tropical moisture andrainfall to the hurricane development region – which are typicallyobserved during active hurricane seasons, are not yet in place butare expected to develop during the coming weeks, Bell added.

The observation of only one tropical storm in the Atlantic fromJune to early August is normal for this time of year, NOAA said inits update.

The 1998 hurricane season produced 14 tropical storms, includingthree major hurricanes. These storms inflicted $7.3 billion indamages and 23 fatalities in the United States alone. In an averageseason, the Atlantic Basin experiences between five and sixhurricanes, two of which are severe and 1.5 storms make land fall.

Rocco Canonica

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