The Canadian Gas Association's 1998 demand forecast shows
overall domestic gas consumption increasing nearly 30% over the
next 12 years to 100.7 billion cubic meters in 2010. The industrial
sector is expected to enjoy the strongest growth (up 38% over the
forecast period), largely driven by increases in power generation.
In 2010, the industrial sector will represent 63% of total end-use
gas demand in Canada, with consumption pegged at 63 billion cubic
meters. This compares to 45.7 billion cubic meters in 1998.
Commercial sector demand will rise to 16.7 billion cubic meters
from 14.5 billion cubic meters in 1998, while residential demand
will increase to 16.9 billion cubic meters in 2010 from the current
14.9 billion cubic meters. Key factors impacting the commercial
sector include an increase in energy conservation programs,
economic shifts that have led to institutional cutbacks, and the
trend toward home offices. The residential sector also will
continue to be affected by an increase in energy conservation
programs. "To a great extent, the power generation forecast will be
affected by the restructuring of the electricity sector that is
underway or anticipated in many provinces. Efforts have been made
to forecast power generation using highest probability; however, a
great deal of uncertainty remains tied to these events," the report
said. Natural gas demand for the Maritimes was not included in the
aggregate national data.
Copies of the 1998 CGA Domestic Demand Forecast are available
for $80 a copy to non-members. Call (416)498-1994.
Joe Fisher, Houston
©Copyright 1998 Intelligence Press, Inc. All rights
reserved. The preceding news report may not be republished or
redistributed in whole or in part without prior written consent of
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