The Canadian Gas Association’s 1998 demand forecast showsoverall domestic gas consumption increasing nearly 30% over thenext 12 years to 100.7 billion cubic meters in 2010. The industrialsector is expected to enjoy the strongest growth (up 38% over theforecast period), largely driven by increases in power generation.In 2010, the industrial sector will represent 63% of total end-usegas demand in Canada, with consumption pegged at 63 billion cubicmeters. This compares to 45.7 billion cubic meters in 1998.

Commercial sector demand will rise to 16.7 billion cubic metersfrom 14.5 billion cubic meters in 1998, while residential demandwill increase to 16.9 billion cubic meters in 2010 from the current14.9 billion cubic meters. Key factors impacting the commercialsector include an increase in energy conservation programs,economic shifts that have led to institutional cutbacks, and thetrend toward home offices. The residential sector also willcontinue to be affected by an increase in energy conservationprograms. “To a great extent, the power generation forecast will beaffected by the restructuring of the electricity sector that isunderway or anticipated in many provinces. Efforts have been madeto forecast power generation using highest probability; however, agreat deal of uncertainty remains tied to these events,” the reportsaid. Natural gas demand for the Maritimes was not included in theaggregate national data.

Copies of the 1998 CGA Domestic Demand Forecast are availablefor $80 a copy to non-members. Call (416)498-1994.

Joe Fisher, Houston

©Copyright 1998 Intelligence Press, Inc. All rightsreserved. The preceding news report may not be republished orredistributed in whole or in part without prior written consent ofIntelligence Press, Inc.