If government predictions are correct, Gulf of Mexico producerscould be shutting in more rigs and shuttling more workers to safetythis hurricane season than last.

This year’s Gulf Coast and Atlantic hurricane season will bringmore tropical storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes than usual,say scientists in the first hurricane outlook ever released by theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at the beginning ofthe June-November season.

The outlook calls for increased chances of greater-than-averagehurricane activity and three or more intense storms. A normalAtlantic hurricane season includes nine to 10 tropical storms, ofwhich five to six are hurricanes and two are classified as intensehurricanes.

“The intensified hurricane activity may be influenced in part bya lingering La Ni¤a episode, which our scientists expect tocontinue at its current strength through the hurricane season, andwhich could help maintain conditions favoring increasing hurricaneactivity,” said D. James Baker, National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration administrator. La Ni¤a refers to cooler-than-averagesea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropicalPacific Ocean, which historically have contributed to a greaternumber of hurricanes in the Atlantic during a given season.

In June, all National Weather Service forecast offices will befully upgraded with advanced interactive computer systems, acenterpiece of a $4.5 billion modernization program that has been apriority of the Clinton Administration. The modernization alsoincludes new technologies such as Doppler radar, satellites, and astate-of-the-art hurricane surveillance jet.

“The increased capabilities provided by these technologiesenable us to better forecast hurricane-related weather andflooding, and get out more timely warnings that may save lives,”said John J. Kelly Jr., National Weather Service director.

Last year, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued itsfirst-ever Atlantic hurricane outlook in early August to indicatewhether the remaining season would bring increased, lessened, ornormal activity. The scientists accurately predicted that therewould be an above-normal number of tropical storms and hurricanesin the Atlantic between August and October, the busiest period ofthe hurricane season. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season brought 14tropical cycles, including three major hurricanes. These stormsinflicted $7.3 billion in damages and 23 fatalities in the UnitedStates alone.

NOAA will update its current outlook in August.

Joe Fisher, Houston

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