Hurricane guru William Gray of Colorado State University ispredicting a relatively quiet tropical weather season in theAtlantic and Caribbean next year mainly because of a weak tomoderate El Nino. Gray expects nine named storms. Five storms wouldbecome hurricanes and two of those would be major hurricanes.

That would make the 2001 season much less severe than the lastfive very busy seasons, but still a bit busier than the period from1970 to 1994. While tropical weather activity is expected to bediminished, Gray said the likelihood of a major hurricane makinglandfall along the entire U.S. coast next year is 63%. Gray’sprobability for a 2001 major hurricane landfall from Florida toBrownsville, TX, is 36%, which is six percentage points higher thanthe average this century. The probability for landfall in theCaribbean is average, and the probability for landfall along theEast Coast is 43%, which is significantly higher than the 31% markover the course of the century.

Gray’s final 2000 update in August called for 11 named storms,seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The season ended onNov. 30 with 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and three majorhurricanes. Gray’s full report can be viewed here.

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