With 5,900 MW of new mostly gas-fired generation capacity comingonline this winter across the United States, the North AmericanElectric Reliability Council concluded in its latest WinterAssessment that “electric resources will be adequate” to meetprojected electricity demand.

Peak demand is expected to be 3% higher than actual demand lastwinter mainly because of the return of normal temperatures.

Despite low reservoir levels in some locations, hydroelectricsupply is expected to be capable of meeting peaking needs. Inaddition, NERC said it believes gas supply will be “adequate” tohandle strong residential, commercial and industrial demand whilecontinuing to serve power generators.

NERC said gas production has increased 5% since last June,drilling has doubled in the past year and gas storage levelsalthough lower than average still exceed the amount historicallywithdrawn over the course of the winter. Of the total amount of gasdemand, 28% is related to the production of electricity.

“The gas industry expects to fulfill all firm contracts thiswinter. It should be noted [however] that electric power supplierstypically do not have firm contracts for their gas supply,” NERCadded in its report.

Generation reserve margins appear adequate at between 27% and30% for December, January and February. However, some regionsclearly are better prepared than others are. New York apparently isthe least prepared with the lowest reserve margins (dropping to9.4% in February) of any NERC region or sub-region. ERCOT and SPPare set up with the highest reserve margins, which are consistentlyabove 35%. For a regional breakdown, see a copy of the NERC report site:ftp://www.nerc.com/pub/sys/all_updl/docs/pubs/winter2000.pdf

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