The huge price run-ups that had been predicted for Thursdaymaterialized on schedule with double-digit gains across the board.Most increases were 30 cents or greater, with citygate quotes forFlorida, Pacific Gas & Electric and several Northeast pointstouching on the high side of $6.

Skyrocketing natural gas futures had provided much of the cashmomentum Wednesday afternoon, but Thursday it was the turn oftraders in the crude oil pit at Nymex to give things an extra push.Escalating violence in the Middle East caused the November crudecontract to be bid up by $2.81/bbl, barely clearing the $36 hurdle.Heating oil futures also were extremely strong with an advance of5.95 cents/gallon.

Gas futures seemed rather tame in comparison, rising “only” alittle more than 12 cents. But the gas market had to take intoaccount that except for some cold, wet conditions in thenorthwestern quadrant of the U.S., what is often called “Chamber ofCommerce weather” dominated elsewhere.

Gas was up primarily on the basis of crude price strength, saida Houston trader. “This is basically a CNN market; there’s nofundamentals or technicals involved. Every [trading] shop has theirTV on CNN watching the Middle East news scares.”

Some sources were starting to question the validity of storageworries in driving gas prices higher. A couple reported suspicionsthat some entities, particularly in the Gulf Coast producingregion, might be underreporting their injections to AGA. One wentso far as to say he expects AGA to make an upward adjustment toWednesday’s 62 Bcf figure, either before next week’s report orincorporated in it.

Much of the refill shortfall appears to be in the producingregion, a marketer said, “and everybody I know is injecting as fastas possible in the Gulf Coast.” He also noted that not all storageusers participate in AGA’s survey, which makes definitive numbersimpossible. “But you can’t trade from that perspective [what yoususpect about storage]; you have to trade with what the marketgives you,” he concluded.

A Midcontinent trader agreed, putting it colorfully: “You’ve gotto take the market cards that you’re dealt and play them.” He alsoadded a thought about non-participation with AGA. “Are the ones notin the survey your Exxon Mobil or Atlanta Gas Light types, or arethey more the small independent producer or small-town municipalLDC?” That would make a big difference in the significance of AGAfigures, he said.

Predictably, Thursday’s smaller increases of less than 20 centsincluded Canadian-related points Sumas, Kingsgate and Stanfield,which were subject to the ending of maintenance constraints onTransCanada-British Columbia that allowed an estimated 400 MMcf/dof Alberta gas to resume flows into PG&E GasTransmission-Northwest. In turn, intra-Alberta numbers rose toeither side of C$7.00 based largely on screen strength, a Calgarytrader said.

Malin, the Southern California border and San Juan Basin wereother markets failing to rise as much as 20 cents. Even with a unitat California’s San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station going downover the weekend for refueling and joining a sizable list of nukeoutages in the West, it’s not making much impact on gas prices, anaggregator said.

A marketer said he was able to buy Texas Eastern-South Texassupply as low as $5.23 and could have gotten more “but I didn’thave enough capacity.” Market-area demand on Texas Eastern wasdying quickly with moderating weather, he said, and that waspushing back gas into the southern terminus in the production area.

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