Small scale power generation revenues are poised for growth,according to a new study by Business Communications Co. Revenueswere estimated at $4.2 billion in 1998 and are expected to grow atan average annual rate of 32.1% to pass $16 billion in 2003.

The fuel cell market is expected to grow the fastest, from $305million in 1996 to $1,094 million by 2003, averaging an annualgrowth rate of 29.1% over the period. A nonexistent market in 1998,microturbine technology is expected to gross $8,500 million by2003, contributing as much as 50% to the total small-scale powersector.

The study found baseload generation currently relies on coal,nuclear and natural gas-fired technologies. However, coal andnuclear stem turbines will decline from their present levels overthe next two decades. By 2003, it is estimated that about 55 GW ofnew generating capacity will be installed in the United States,more than 200 GW will be installed in world markets, and asignificant portion of these capacities will be in the form ofsmall-scale power systems in distributed energy applications.

Small-scale systems are set to play a major role in thederegulated power industry. Large-scale plants will compete in thebaseload power generation market, while small-scale power systemswill penetrate the distributed power market. Over the next decade,nuclear power plants will be decommissioned, and increasinglystringent environmental regulations will be enforced. Majorutilities will see cost tradeoffs between power grid upgrades andthe need for additional central power plants versus distributedgeneration. Lastly, the trend to small-scale generation systemswill continue to grow, spurred by the approaching commercializationof a number of new technologies in generator sets, turbines,microturbines and fuel cells.

The study, titled “Small-Scale Power Generation: How Much, WhatKind?” is available from Business Communications Co., Norwalk, CT,for $3,150. For information, call (203)853-4266, Ext. 309.

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